An Empirical Study On The Relationship Between Industrial Economic Growth And Industrial "three Wastes" Emissions In Qinghai Province

In recent years,the frequent occurrence of haze weather has brought great inconvenience to production and life,and even threatened people’s health.The environmental pollution caused by industrial development has received unprecedented attention,and the people’s voice on the good ecological environment has become the higher the higher.Since the 18 th Party Congress,eco-environmental protection has been placed in a more important strategic position.Qinghai Province is the birthplace of the Changjiang River,the Yellow River and the Lancang River,and its ecological status is very important in the overall national strategy.For such a small province of economy in Qinghai Province,the ecological province,how to develop the economy at the same time,do a good job of ecological and environmental protection work to achieve the coordinated development of economy and the environment,not only to achieve their own development needs,but also to serve the national situation The need.Therefore,this paper chooses Qinghai Province as the research area,aiming at clarifying the change of ecological environment quality in Qinghai Province with the economic growth,and providing reference for the formulation of environmental protection policy in Qinghai Province.In this paper,the study on the relationship between industrial economic growth and industrial "three wastes" emission in Qinghai Province is divided into two steps:the first step is to find out the "Statistical Yearbook of Qinghai Province" on the basis of economic growth theory and environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis,And the "Qinghai Provincial Environmental Statistics Bulletin" and other relevant information,access to Qinghai Province in 1990-1914 between the industrial output value and industrial wastewater discharge,industrial emissions,industrial solid waste emissions data,the use of Eviews8.0 software on these Time series of variables for cointegration test and Granger causality test.The second step is based on the above analysis results,using the system dynamics method,with the help of Vensim software,economic structure of Qinghai Province,structural analysis,drawing causal diagram and system flow diagram,input system dynamics equation,the establishment of system dynamics Model,simulation system operating mechanism,simulation experiments,forecastingthe Change of Industrial Output Value and Industrial "Three Wastes" in Qinghai Province from 2015 to 2040.The conclusion of this paper is as follows:(1)There is a long-term trend of industrial output value and industrial "three wastes" emissions in Qinghai Province.And the total industrial output value of Qinghai Province and industrial "three wastes" emissions between the Granger causality: industrial output value is the industrial "three wastes" emissions of Granger reasons,while industrial "three wastes" emissions is also the total industrial output value of Granger The reason is that the industrial output value of Qinghai Province and industrial "three wastes" emissions affect each other.(2)Between 1990 and 2040,the total industrial output value of Qinghai Province increased from 2.213 billion yuan in 1990 to 625.132 billion yuan in 2040.Industrial waste water showed an upward trend before 2034 and2034 reached its peak;Industrial emissions in 2027 before the upward trend in 2027 reached its peak after the downward trend;industrial solid waste before 2030 showed an upward trend in 2030 reached its peak after the downward trend.Overall,industrial growth in Qinghai Province and industrial "three wastes" emissions were inverted "U"-type curve,in 2030 before and after the arrival of the inflection point,in line with EKC hypothesis.(3)to strengthen environmental protection efforts to increase investment in environmental governance to reduce pollution,the arrival of the EKC inflection point has a crucial role.