Can Emissions Trading Scheme Achieve Green Development?

Since entering the new normal,China faces dual unfavorable situation,that is obvious decline in economic growth and environmental pollution is becoming more and more serious.The Chinese government put forward the new idea of green development,and clearly-defined that the market mechanism is adopted to control environment pollution.However,researches about market mechanism and the green development are relatively deficient.Therefore,based on the available data,with China's sulfur dioxide emissions trading pilot policy as the research object,this paper divide green development into green development mode(green production technology)and green development effect(pollutant emission intensity).Then,construct Malmquist-Luenberger index that contains both good output and bad output and sulfur dioxide emissions intensity.Then,based on the panel data of 30 provincial-level administrative region from 1998 to 2014,Using double difference method and double difference propensity score matching method empirically test the influence and its mechanism of action of China's sulfur dioxide emissions trading scheme on green development.The results showed that:(1)Although sulfur dioxide trading mechanism promoted the green development in China,effect is small;(2)Research and development strength,anti-pollution investment,technology transfer can promote the green development,while the factor endowment structure and industry structure,energy structure will hinder the green development;(3)China's sulfur dioxide trading mechanism can promote the green development by increasing research and development strength,and inhibit anti-pollution investment,technology transfer can weaken its role in promoting green development;(4)China's sulfur dioxide trading mechanism can increase its inhibitory effect on green development by raising the capital labor ratio,and reduce its negative effects on the green development by lowing the secondary industry proportion,fossil energy proportion.