Study On Reliability Growth Prediction Model And Application Of Long Gas Pipeline System

With the rapid development of national economy in our country,the demand for natural gas constantly increases,also the natural gas transportation tasks becomes more difficult,which requires long gas pipeline system has higher reliability.In order to fully understand the long gas pipeline system reliability growth and more information of the system reliability growth,forecast system future failure time within a certain range,improve the reliability of system,and ensure the normal operation of the system,thesis uses the Gamma distribution model combined the theory of structure entropy with fuzzy theory to study the long gas pipeline system reliability growth prediction,the content of the paper summarized as follows:Through the summarize of the characteristics of reliability growth prediction model of long gas pipeline system,the structure entropy theory is used to analyze its influence factors and decision;at the same time through the long gas pipeline system reliability growth prediction to determine the parameters model,and the dominated by the failure time distribution theory,the system relies on life and failure strength and other parameters are combined the Gamma distribution with fuzzy theory model to construct the long gas pipeline system reliability growth prediction model.Through the empirical analysis to study the application of reliability growth prediction model of the long gas pipeline system,and analysis the prediction ability of the models and fitting ability,and verify the validity of the model,at the same time,the thesis has carried on the induction summary of the research content.The thesis research results can enhance the development phase of the study consciousness,also conducive to maintenance and repair work in the long gas pipeline system.In this paper,we build the factors of decision analysis method and reliability growth prediction model has good applicability and reliability growth of other similar research work has good reference significance.