Ecological Security Evaluation Of Countries In The Nile Basin Of Africa

The series of problems including the aspects of resources,environment and population in the countries of Nile basin are becoming increasingly serious and the ecological environment is also fragile.The problems cause the crisis that is not only an environmental problem,but also an ecological security problem,which seriously affects the safety of the countries in the Nile basin.Based on the understanding of the relevant literature and basic theory,learning more about the design and overall experience of the domestic and international ecological security field,and using the data of the World Bank and the African Development Bank from 1990 to 2014 establish the database that contains the 25-year data of 10 countries in the Nile Basin and South Sudan’s data from 2011 to 2014.Establish the comprehensive evaluation indices system based on the frequency statistics,theoretical analysis and the pressure-state-response(P-S-R)model which is proposed by Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development.Use the statistical methods to standardize the original data and the coefficient of variation method to weight for indicators.According to the composite index model,evaluate the ecological security of 11 countries,including Egypt,Ethiopia,Burundi,Eritrea,Congo(Kinshasa),Kenya,Rwanda,Sudan,South Sudan,Tanzania and Uganda in the Nile Basin.Get the following conclusions:(1)from 1990 to 2014,the national pressure index in descending order:Uganda → Kenya → Eritrea → Tanzania → Burundi → Ethiopia → Egypt → Sudan → Congo(DRC)→ Rwanda.Among them,Uganda,Kenya and Eritrea have the bigger pressure because of the pressure of population and economy.(2)from 1990 to 2014,the national state index in descending order:Egypt → Eritrea → Sudan → Rwanda → Uganda → Tanzania → Burundi → Kenya → Ethiopia→ Congo(DRC).Among them,Egypt,Eritrea and Sudan have the better state due to the increase of the rural water proportion and forest cover.(3)from 1990 to 2014,the national response index in descending order:Egypt → Sudan → Uganda → Kenya → Ethiopia → Rwanda → Eritrea → Tanzania → Congo(DRC)→ Burundi.Among them,Egypt,Sudan and Uganda have the more positive response due to the increase of the number of articles in science and technology journals,coupled with the relevant government departments increasing investment in infrastructure.(4)from 1990 to 2014,the national ecological security composite index in descending order:Egypt → Sudan → Uganda → Eritrea → Kenya → Ethiopia → Rwanda → Tanzania → Burundi→ Congo(DRC).Among them,Egypt,Sudan and Uganda have the bigger national ecological security composite index.Egypt has the lower pressure index and the state index and the response index are ranked first,so the national ecological security is the best overall situation.Sudan and Uganda have the lower pressure index,the higher state index and response index,so national ecological security is also better.(5)from 2005 to 2009,among the 47 counties of Kenya,Lamu bears the biggest pressure,Kisii has the least pressure;Wajir’s ecological security state is worst,Laikipia’s ecological security state is the best;Mandera’s response is the worst,Nairobi’s response is the best;Wajir’s ecological security is the worst,Nairobi’s ecological security is the best.In the eastern part of Kenya,the pressure is strong,the status and the response are poor.However,In the northwest and southwest,the pressure is small,the state and the response is good.The water and heat conditions are better in the west than in the east.Education,social services,social infrastructure and protected areas are also concentrated in the west and south.The geographical position and economic development are closely related,which affects the ecological security of Kenya.In the context of this study,although the ecological security situation of countries other than Sudan continues to develop towards a better situation,the state’s ecological security situation fluctuates greatly and the majorityof the country’s ecological security Composite index under the safer state are only slightly higher than the critical safety ceiling,and the national ecological security situation is not optimistic.The total index of national ecological security calculated in this paper reflects the ecological security status of each country to a certain degree,and has a certain guiding effect on the comprehensive understanding of the national ecological security situation and can be used as a reference for national ecological security policy measures.