Evaluation Method And Application Of Modern Uncertainty

As an important parameter to characterize the measurement results,uncertainty has been paid more and more attention in various fields of society.Due to the continuous progress of the times,the rapid development of science and technology and people attach great importance to the quality of products,the modern uncertainty evaluation methods and theories emerge as the times require.It is of great significance to study the modern uncertainty evaluation method,which is of great significance to improve the modern uncertainty theory and promote the wide application of modern uncertainty.In this paper,firstly,the Bias uncertainty evaluation method was studied systematically based on the analysis of modern uncertainty theory.A new method of real-time and continuous updating of the uncertainty components was proposed based on the conjugate Bayesian theory.In order to overcome the limitation of non-information and conjugate prior Bayesian methods,a method of Bayesian uncertainty evaluation based on maximum entropy principle was proposed,and the optimization algorithm and computer programming were introduced to realize the optimal estimation of uncertainty.The effectiveness of the proposed method was verified by simulation.Bayesian dynamic uncertainty evaluation and prediction method was studied based on the principle and model of Bayesian dynamic prediction.The dynamic uncertainty model of each process was established based on the analysis of the characteristics and types of dynamic stochastic processes.The dynamic uncertainty evaluation method of non ergodic random process was discussed.Through the analysis of the measurement examples,it provided the universal significance for the evaluation of the dynamic uncertainty.In view of the application of Monte Carlo method in the evaluation of uncertainty,a Monte Carlo method for uncertainty verification was proposed.The feasibility of the method for evaluating and predicting the dynamic uncertainty by Bayes was verified based on the analysis of simulation.This paper focuses on the application of uncertainty in product inspection,and the method to determine the eligibility of products under the influence of uncertainty was studied.The calculation model of the misjudgment rate of single product inspection was established.According to the inspection of batch products,a method to judge the risk ofthe whole product inspection was put forward.Through product inspection case analysis,the theories in this paper were applied synthetically,the detailed guidance on the method of product inspection and a scientific basis for both sides of the product supply and demand to determine the product conformity were provided.