Prediction Of Municipal Solid Waste Generation Of Shenzhen City Based On System Dynamic Model

Municipal solid waste(MSW) management has become an important environmental issue in China. MSW generation is the most important data base of the MSW management system. Both planning and design of MSW management systems require accurate prediction of solid waste generation. Shenzhen is the fourth biggest city in China, MSW generation trends of Shenzhen become increasingly complicated, some frequently-used method can't achieve the accuracy requirement. In this context, relationship between the MSW generation and social economy must be explored to build a prediction model.System dynamic(SD) method is designated to model the MSW generation of Shenzhen based on the review of most studied methods. The SD model includes five major social economy factors as independent variable based on the grey correlation analysis result. The five factors are registered population, non-registered population, GDP, urban resident per capita disposable income and urban resident per capita expenditure on consumption. Equations and parameters of the model are designed and debugged by the computer software STELLA 10.0. Statistics tests and sensitivity analysis have been conducted to test the model. MSW generation between the year 2014 to 2030 of Shenzhen are predicted used the tested model. Comparison and analysis between the modelling results of SD model and most researched models such as stepwise regression analysis,GM(1,1) and exponential smoothing method have been conducted. Reduction effect of three reduction measures is estimated based on the prediction result of SD model.Prediction results reveal that MSW generation of Shenzhen keep sustainable growing between the year 2014 to 2030, with a decline of the growth rate in the late period of predition. Annual MSW generation of Shenzhen will achieve 11.22 million tons in the year 2030, while per captia MSW generation will be 1.95 kg per day. Permanent resident population is the major influence factor of annual MSW generation of Shenzhen while urban resident per capita expenditure on consumption is the major influence factor of per captia MSW generation.Combined compression dehydration with food waste recycling could achieve a reduction ratio of 38.7 percent in the year 2020 and 48.2 percent in the year 2030, while there will be 11.9 and 15.9 thousand tons solid waste disposed in the the terminal treatment facilities.