The Study Of Sustainable Development Of Ecological In Baise Based On The Model Of Ecological Footprint

This paper calculates and analyzes the evaluation indicator of sustainable development based on ecological footprint,ecological carrying capacity from 2004 to 2013.and uses statistical software SPSS 19.0 to do analysis of regression,and then forecasts the variation trend for five years of ecological deficit from 2014 to 2018.Lastly,the author hopes to provide some theoretical basis for harmonious development in Baise.This study chooses the calculated indicators of ecological footprint and the evaluation indicators of ecological sustainable development to do correlation calculations on account of ecological footprint model.The results show that ecological carrying capacity(ECC)per capita of Baise decreased from 0.63565hm2 in 2004 to 0.54192hm2 in 2013,which slighted reduced 0.09373hm2.The per capita ecological footprint increased from 1.381496 hm2 in 2004 to 1.766031 hm2 in 2013,which rapidly increased 0.384535hm2.As the ecological footprint calculation involves six kinds of land types,this study respectively calculates the proportion of all kinds of land in total and analyzes their changes for each one from 2004 to 2013 in order to find out the growing emphasis of ecological footprint.Ecological carrying capacity(ECC)per capita of Baise is always smaller than per capita ecological footprint among ten years and so the resources from natural environment are always smaller than the need from people so that ecological deficit of Baise continually increase.The evaluation result of ecological sustainable development is that ecology in Baise is in the serious unsustainable state and even this situation is intensifying from 2004 to 2013.When forecast Baise ecological deficit/surplus for five years,this thesis does analysis of regression for ecological carrying capacity(ECC)per capita and the per capita ecological footprint and then figures out the ecological regime of five years based on design formulas"ecological deficit\surplus".The result indicates that the per capita ecological footprint shows a great growth trend which increases from 1.846hm2 to 3.567hm2;Ecological carrying capacity(ECC)per capita in Baise shows slightly a decline trend from 0.48664hm2 to 0.4444hm2.Therefore,in the next five years,ecological deficit in Baise will increase year by year from 1.35936hm2/cap to 3.1226hm2/cap and Ecological unsustainable situation will more worsen.In the end,on account of the results of ecological footprint model and the overall consideration for restraining factors of ecological sustainable development in Baise and future development prospect,put forward suggestion of ecological sustainable development.