Study On The Applicability Of Flood Forecasting Multi-model In Luanchuan Small Watershed Format

Although the national flood disaster prevention and control work has achieved remarkable results,because of our vast territory,landform types are complex and diverse,monsoon climate characteristics of various mountain flash disaster caused by regional differences,some small watershed is still not accurate enough to predict the situation.In view of these problems,this paper takes the Luanchuan small watershed in the semi-arid and semi-humid region of the north to study the watershed.First,through the treatment of hydrological data in the basin from 1998 to 2012,22 historical floods are divided.Secondly,according to the variation of the underlying surface condition and the confluence of Luanchuan basin,the three hydrological models of Dahua,Xin'anjiang and TOPMODEL are selected as representative models,and the genetic parameters are used to determine the parameters of the three models respectively.Finally,the simulation results of different models are compared to analyze the applicability of different models in Luanchuan small watershed.The main results of this paper are as follows:(1)The average pass rate of the TOPMODEL model was 79.6%,80.7% and 72.7%,respectively,in the Luanchuan River Basin.On the whole,the simulation model is better in the Luanchuan River Basin,and the TOPMODEL model is the worst.In addition,the simulation model is more consistent in the Luanchuan River Basin,and the mechanism of runoff formation in semi-arid and semi-humid areas is more complicated,and sometimes it is a single super-osmotic flow or a rich runoff pattern.There are super-fat flow,but also full of production.(2)In the case of uneven distribution of rainfall in hydrological rainfall stations,the comparison rate of the simulation model is relatively low,and the TOPMODEL model can simulate the model.This is because the TOPMODEL model takes into account the effects of watershed topography,topography,soil and other factors on runoff formation,and the lumped hydrological model of Dahuofang and Xin'anjiang generalizes the watershed as a whole,ignoring the variables and models such as rainfall and evaporation Parameter inhomogeneity.(3)From the indicators of simulated flood,the accuracy of each model test period is simulated.One of the most likely causes is the impact of human activities on runoff,such as water storage and drainage of reservoirs.Therefore,in the future study,may take due consideration to the impact of small water storage project on the hydrological cycle of the basin,study the storage law of the small water storage project in the hydrological simulation,and establish the empirical curve of the storage law of the water storage project.