The Effects Of Climate Change On Snow Melt In The Manas River Basin Are Studied

Manasi river basin is located in arid region of China,water resources is to maintain the ecological environment in this area,economic production and social life of the "lifeline".Because the snow melt Manasi inland river basin of the main water source,decided its hydrological processes and features to a great extent by the winter snow and ice storage water.Therefore that mountain of snow and glaciers is an important part of water resources in Manasi River Basin recharge and river water,the Manasi river basin is located in arid inland areas is very important and special significance based on.Therefore,this paper based on the 2002-2011 MODIS snow products and 200 Snow water equivalent data of 2002-2011,using the mathematical model,remote sensing and other advanced technology features,spatial and temporal changes in the past 10 years snowpack in Manasi River Basin are analyzed.Secondly,using the meteorological observation data and numerical simulation,sequence analysis,climate diagnosis and GIS spatial analysis method,the past 50 years and the next 50 years the climate change characteristics of Manasi River Basin;finally analyzes the impacts of climate change on the snowpack,and provide scientific basis for the rational development and utilization of basin water resources and ecological environment protection.Based on the above analysis,the following conclusions:(1)The Manasi River Basin from 2002 to 2011,nearly ten years of snow cover area overall showed a downward trend,the average annual snow area remained floating in 430000-600000 km2,in the annual distribution in Manasi River Basin,the snow growth period mainly concentrated in the year October to March,July and August snow area for the year minimum,snow area winter spring season two decreased obviously,snow cover in summer two season showed an increasing trend.The Manasi River Basin from 2002 to 2011,nearly ten years of snow depth overall transformation is larger,the average annual snow depth remained at 8 Floating-14 cm,snow depth from the whole showed obvious decreasing trend,in February November the minimum maximum snow depth,snow depth,the next 50 years with a gray month snow cover and snow depth showed a significant downward trend.(2)The snow covered Manasi River Basin from north to south is the trend,Manasi River Basin,the first snow was delayed,with the increase of latitude,the days of snow also showed a gradually increasing trend from south to north.The higher the latitude,the snow began time sooner.Snow cover in Manasi River Basin and the longer the duration and the snow cover duration is longer,the snow index is relatively more.2002 to 2011,the average snow water equivalent in all regions showing a decreasing trend,the average snow depth in various regions showing a decreasing trend,snow depth and snow water equivalent with increasing altitude,The depth of snow cover showed a positive trend from south to north,and the higher the altitude,the greater the snow depth and snow water equivalent value(3)The change in the next 50 years the trend of Manasi River Basin,the annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation have an upward trend,the warming rate respectively is 0.394 DEG /10 a and 12.65mm/10 a,in the four seasons in winter is warming fastest warming rate in summer season,the minimum rate of rise,the average winter water drop faster the increase in the minimum temperature,precipitation in autumn.The Manasi River Basin,the precipitation spatial interpolation in the east than in the west,the South than the north.Changes in the next 50 years the trend of Manasi River Basin,the annual mean temperature and temperature are four rising trend,the average annual temperature increase rate is 0.378 DEG /1 0A,the next 50 years is the slowest in winter warming season,summer warming rate,Manasi River Basin change in the future 50 years of precipitation also showed a rising trend,and the next 50 years the annual increase in the rate of 0.91mm/10 a,changes in the next 50 years,the trend of the average autumn precipitation are a downward trend,changes in the next 50 years,the trend of the rest of the three season average precipitation for the rising trend,the Manasi River Basin in the future 50 years the temperature,precipitation spatial interpolation in the east than in the west,the South than the north high.(4)The average annual snow depth of nearly ten years in Manasi River Basin has 0.05 levels of negative correlation with annual average temperature,the correlation coefficient is 0.437;the average annual snow depth and annual precipitation showed a 0.01 level of positive correlation,the correlation coefficient was 0.87,the snow depth decreases with the reduction of precipitation,and the precipitation effect on snow depth obviously,the snow depth decreases with increasing temperature,and the effect of temperature on snow depth is very significant.The annual snow depth in the next 50 years in Manasi River Basin has 0.01 levels of negative correlation with annual average temperature,the correlation coefficient is 0.699;the average annual snow depth And the annual precipitation showed a correlation coefficient of 0.038,the snow depth decreases with increasing temperature,and the effect of temperature on snow depth is very significant,but there was no significant relationship between precipitation and snow depth,so with the increase in precipitation will not affect the snow depth.