The Climate Change Characteristics In Shandong Province And Research Reanalysis The Data Applicability

Recently with the increase of temperature,climate change has becomes the topic that people and government generally care about.And different regions make different response to the global climate change,therefore,studying the temperature and precipitation regional change is of great importance not only in practice but also in theory.Shandong Province is more sensitive to global warming,which belongs to the vulnerable area of climatic environment,thoroughly and profoundly revealing the climate change characteristics in Shandong Province,to provide scientific basis for climate change.Based on the temperature and precipitation data of 17 meteorological stations in Shandong Province during the period of 1951-2015,linear tendency estimation,distance adjustment,5 years sliding average,Mann-Kendall mutation test and Molert wavelet analysis were used in this paper to study the climate change characteristics from different interannual and seasonal changes.According to the longitude and latitude of the site,using the bilinear interpolation to obtain each site of the ERA-Interim reanalysis data sequence,the correlation coefficient,bias,root mean square error,mean absolute error,from different time scales of seasonal temperature drop,reanalysis data were used to evaluate the accuracy.The data of the lattice points of the air temperature reanalysis data with high accuracy are extracted and the representative of 17 meteorological stations in Shandong Province is verified.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)Characteristics of temperature variationIn 90 s,the annual average temperature increased obviously in Shandong Province,and the obvious stages of spring,summer,autumn and winter are the 21 st century,the 1990 s,the 1980 s,and the 1990 s respectively.1951-2015,the annual average increased rate was 0.23 degrees /10 a in Shandong province,the rate of increase in the season is winter > spring > autumn > summer,and in the next period of time,the temperature will show a decreased trend.The abrupt change point of annual average temperature is the year of 1989,and the spring,summer,autumn and winter mutations were in the year 1993,1994,1994,and 1986 respectively.The main period of the annual average temperature of 9 year time scale,the main period of spring and summer there were 10 years,9 year time scale;the main period of autumn has 13 years,9 years and 6 year time scale;the main period of winter there are 10 years and 5 years time scale.(2)Precipitation variation characteristicsThe annual precipitation in Shandong Province is in the positive distance from the 1950 s to 1970 s,but in 80-21 century,the annual precipitation is in the negative distance;in the years of 50 th,and 70 th to 90 th,the Spring precipitation is in the negative anomaly,the precipitation in twenty-first Century is in positive anomaly;precipitation summer and autumn have same trend with the annual precipitation;in 60,80 to 90 centuries,the precipitations are in a negative anomaly,but in the 50 and 70 s and twenty-first Centuries,the precipitations are in positive anomaly.In the year of 1951 to 2015,annual precipitation has a reduction rate of 11.12mm/10 a in Shandong Province;in the spring,the precipitation had an increase at the rate of 2.49mm/10 a,in addition,the precipitation reduction are as follow: summer > autumn > winter.In the next period of time,annual precipitation will show a rising trend in summer,autumn and winter,but annual precipitation will show a decreasing trend in spring.The abrupt change point of annual precipitation is in the year of 1969 and 2002,The abrupt change point of spring is in the year of 1985,1969 and 2001,and The abrupt change point of the autumn is in the year of 1977,and The abrupt change point of the winter is in the year of 1964,1976,1996 and 1999.The abrupt change point of Annual precipitation has a 17-year,4-year time scale of the main cycle,The abrupt change point of spring has 17 years,8 years,5 years time scale time scale of the main cycle;The abrupt change point of summer has 12 years and 5 years time scale of the main cycle;The abrupt change point of autumn has 16 years and 4 years time scale of the main cycle;The abrupt change point of winter has16 years 8 year and 4 year time scale of the main cycle.(3)Evaluation of the temperature and precipitation reanalysis data applicabilityThe average annual temperature reanalysis values has a good accuracy with the measured values of most stations.The average of the annual mean temperature observations are consistent with the average of the reanalysis data.The reanalysis of the temperature of different meteorological stations is different in different seasons.The average of the annual mean temperature observations are consistent with the average of the reanalysis data in four seasons.ERA-Interim reanalysis data on the annual and seasonal scale of the measured data is better.The annual value of annual precipitation in Shandong Province is consistent with the measured value from the year of 1979 to 2003,but the value is not well matched from the year of 2004 to 2015.In spring autumn and winter,the precipitation reanalysis data is consistent good with the average value of the observed values,however,in summer,the reanalysis value is consistent bad with the measured value.Using the evaluation precision of the temperature reanalysis data in shandong province all the site data comparing the measured data of meteorological site.the annual and seasonal mean temperature reanalysis values are consistent with observed values.Meteorological sites can reflect the interannual variability of annual and seasonal mean temperatures well,and 17 meteorological stations have good representative in Shandong Province.