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The Study Of Climate Change Impact On Algal Growth In Panjiakou Reservoir

Posted on:2017-10-10Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:W Z XuFull Text:PDF
GTID:2310330518453727Subject:Hydrology and water resources
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Currently,Climate change is an important scientific issue of hydrology and water resources evolution,climate change will inevitably cause the space-time change of water resources.To understand of evolution law of water resources and realize the sustainable utilization of water resources development,it has important practical significance to quantify the impact of climate change on water resources.Due to multiple eutrophication outbreak events of important lakes and reservoirs,eutrophication has become today's hot topic of hydrological research about lake and reservoir,knowing how and how much the algae growth response to climate change in the reservoir can provide the reference information for water quality management and regional economic development.This paper take Panjiakou reservoir as an example,which is the convergence of the central region of Luan River basin,through hydrological model and eutrophication model based on LSPC,EFDC,and through the coupling of the two,carry out the research of the algae growth response to climate change in Panjiakou reservoir.In this paper,the contents and conclusions are as follows:We compared the temperature and precipitation under climate change scenarios of RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP8.5(2050-2099)and the reference period(1951-2000),the results show that the future trend of the precipitation has certain increase,the temperature also exist obvious rising trend.Hydrology and water quality model is established based on LSPC,central area of Luan River basin is the region of hydrology and water quality simulation,simulation results is good,the meteorological data obtained from the downscaling is used to drive the model,from the simulation result we get the changes of the incoming runoff to Panjiakou reservoir and nutrients concentration under different climate scenarios,the results show that:(1)Under the influence of rainfall change and temperature change,the runoff of Luan River Basin will decrease and the trend will be weak in the future.(2)According to the main source of nutrients in different ways,nutrient concentration changes of inflow are different under climate change,the nutrients which is from both point source and non-point source(TN,TP),the concentration change was similar to the former in dry season with little rainfall.In the rainy season,the change of concentration also depends on the ability of bringing the nutrient into reach,the temperature increased greatly,the rainfall did not increase significantly,and the ability of bringing nutrientsweakened,the concentration showed a decreasing trend;Change law of different nutrients are different due to the difference of the underlying surface conditions in the process of generating the surface source,but in general they are similar.Finally,based on EFDC model Panjiakou reservoir water dynamic and water quality model is established,the dynamic and water quality of Panjiakou reservoir is simulated,and the simulation results is good.The incoming runoff and pollutant concentration is get from LSPC simulation result as part of the boundary conditions of the eutrophication of EFDC model under different RCP scenarios,the results show that:(1)among the three variables studied,the contribution rate of chlorophyll concentration changes order is: temperature> flow > nutrient concentration,temperature played a significant role throughout the year;(2)Algae growth's response to climate change is mainly manifested in the aspects that climate change will advance the growth of algae,because of low concentration level of nutrients within the reservoir,the growth of algae is limited,the peak value of chlorophyll concentration has no obvious change.
Keywords/Search Tags:climate change, GCMs, LSPC, EFDC, algae growth, response
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