Researches On The Statistical Forecast Method Of The Atmospheric Winds In Near Space

As a transition region from the sky to the space,near-space is closely related to human life,and plays an important role in the development ofspace science.As a basic parameter of near-space,the research and exploration of wind filed is helpful for human to understand the near-space.D ue to the influence of many factors,the atmospheric wind filed of near-space is complex,which restricts the study of this region.The activities of human being in the near space put forward the demand for the forecast of atmospheric environment in the near space.Under this background,researches of prediction method in near-space winds is carried out in this paper.The work in this thesis can be summarized as the following aspects:(1)This paper introduces the near-space,detection method of near-space winds,HWM model and research status of statistical forecasting method.(2)Langfang MF radar and it's survey theory are introduced.By analyzing the wind filed data of MF data,we can come to this conclusion:the zonal wind of Langfang 88 km altitude has obvious periodic variation.Comparison with HWM model shows thatthe variation trend of HWM model wind is similar to that of Langfang MF radar.(3)Time series methodand thecharacteristics of ARMA model are introduced.This paper studiesthe statistical forecast method of the atmospheric winds in near-space and buildsa statistical forecastingmodel of near-space wind filed.(4)The forecast experiment I of near-space wind filed is carried out by using the wind field prediction model.Results suggest that ARMA model has certain applicability in forecasting the near-space atmospheric wind,the forecast of ARMA model is better than that of AR model with the same order and is slightly better than that of higher-order AR model.Comparison with HWM model shows thatthe cycle and the variation trend of the forecast resultsis similar to that of HWM model.(5)The forecast experiment IIof near-space wind filed is carried out and the correctness of the first experimental results is verified.But the forecast results is slightly worse than experiment I.The correction result of near-spacenumerical forecast shows thatthe correction method based on time series method can't improve the accuracy of numerical forecasting method currently.