The Application Of Logistic Model And Age Shift In The Analysis Of Second Child Policy

In recent years,with the full liberalization of the two-child policy,the trend of population change in China has also changed.This change is bound to have a certain impact on the development of society.Therefore,it is necessary to accurately estimate the trend of population of.In this paper,we use the regression analysis method,which is often used to predict the trend of data change in statistics,to analyze the population data and give the trend of population change after the opening of the second child policy,and analyze the factors that affect the fertility of the second child.Firstly,this paper introduces the main ideas of several commonly used population forecasting models,such as linear regression,Malthusian population model,logistic growth model and age shift model,and their advantages and disadvantages.Combining the population data with more than 30 years,The statistical software evaluates a part of the data,estimates the parameters of the model,and expresses the specific model,the application relevance,the confidence interval,and so on to evaluate the credibility of the model.And then through the model to predict the population of 2011-2015,compared with the actual value,to find the highest accuracy,function curve fitting the best effect of the model.Through this model,we predict the population of 2016 without preaching the two-child policy,and compare with the actual value to obtain the approximate number of newborns,combined with the number of women of the same age,And analyzes the factors that may affect the fertility of the family.Finally,the logistic growth model is combined with the age shift model to construct a method that can easily estimate the number of people in the future.