Study On Monitoring And Simulation Of Landscape Pattern Of Land Use In Putian City Based On RS And GIS

Landscape pattern of land use with significant temporal and spatial characteristics,the spatial configuration status of different shape and size of land use patches,is the specific manifestation of the landscape heterogeneity.Landscape pattern of land use will be affected by the restriction of natural environment and the interference of human activities,therefore,studies on monitoring and simulation of landscape pattern of land use will be conducive to provide more space information and the actual situation for the formulation of management policy,as well as scientific basis for scientific and rational land use planning and regional ecological protection.Putian City which is an important green treasure in Fujian Province is located in the coastal mountainous and hilly zone.With the rapid progress of urbanization and industrialization in Putian City,many of the contradiction between supply and demand of land use began to emerge,and its' environment encountered the huge breakage.Based on the three remote sensing images of Putian City in 1995,2005 and 2015,and by using RS and GIS technology to interpret.By using methods of landscape metrics,Shannon diversity t-test,Logistic regression model and Markov model,Characteristics of landscape pattern of land use in Putian City during the past 20 years,the degree of difference between five administrative areas in different times,and driving mechanism of landscape pattern change were studied in this paper.Besides that,the change of forest landscape pattern in the future was simulated,and the spatial distribution of forestland roll-out from 2015 to 2035 was predicted.This research was aim to provide scientific basis for the establishment of development policy of Putian city,ecological restoration,land use planning and management.The main results are as follows:(1)The area of forestland,agricultural land and water area decreased from 1995 to 2015,while construction land increased significantly,bare land decreased first and then increased.From 1995 to 2005,the process of forest and water area roll-in and roll-out was both obvious,the trend of agricultural land and bare land roll-out was greater than roll-in,by contrast,the new construction land was transformed mainly from agricultural land and bare land.From 2005 to 2015,degree of land use change was increasing,the process of agricultural land and bare land roll-in and roll-out was both obvious,the trend of construction land roll-in was greater than roll-out,while the situation of agricultural land and water area was on the contrary.(2)Landscape index calculation results showed that during past 20 years,the patch density,largest patch index,mean patch area of forestland declined year by year,which means forestland was in a state of fragmentation.The shape of agricultural land tends to be more regular and simple,and the degree of connection of construction land was increasing due to the gradual improvement of road traffic facilities.The fragmentation degree,diversity and evenness of whole landscape of Putian City increased,while landscape aggregation decreased year by year.(3)According to the Shannon diversity t-test results,the changes of landscape pattern of land use during three periods(1995-2005,2005-2015,1995-2015)in Putian City were extremely significant.In addition to the changes of landscape pattern of land use in Chengxiang Area and Licheng Area from 1995 to 2005 were not significant,the changes of landscape pattern of land use in other administrative areas during this period and all administrative areas during other periods were all extremely significant.(4)According to the results of Logistic regression model,each model has a very significant effect on the combined explanatory power of the dependent variables.That is,the integral fitting effect of model is acceptable.The geographical factors have a greater driving effect on the change of landscape pattern than the social economic factors,in the meanwhile,the factors that caused the change of different land use types are not the same.Among the 12 driving factors,slope,elevation,population density,gross domestic product,and the distance to bare land,agricultural land,and forestland have a significant impact on forestland roll-out.(5)The area change of each land use type in the future was forecasted by using Markov model.Based on the predicted results,forestland,agricultural land,and water area will continue to decrease from 2015 to 2075,construction land and bare land will continue to increase,and the proportion of forestland will be reduced to 32.52%by 2075.With the increasing proportion of construction land,it will become the dominant landscape in Putian City,which also means that the phenomenon of urbanization will be more significant.(6)The spatial distribution of forestland roll-out from 2015 to 2035 was simulated by using the model of forestland roll-out from 1995 to 2015.According to simulation results,the location of forestland roll-out is mainly distributed in Xianyou County and Hanjiang Area from 2015 to 2035,and forestland in Chengxiang Area was well protected.And the contradiction of land use in Xianyou County and Hanjiang Area will be more and more serious after 2015,which make these two places become the focus areas of land use planning and forestland protection.