Analysis And Forecast Of Land Use Change In The Regimental Town Based On High Resolution Remote Sensing Images

Land use change is one of the hotspots in the field of interdisciplinary research.In the context of the transformation of China’s urbanization,opportunities and challenges exist side by side in the urbanization of the regimental town.It is necessary to provide theoretical basis and decision support for optimizing the land use structure of the regimental town by studying the land use change process and forecasting the future spacial structure of land-use.In this thesis,the land use/cover information of the study area was extracted by using the object-oriented method based on QuickBird image and SPOT image.The spatial pattern and change characteristics of land use from 2005 to 2015 were analysed with land use dynamic degree and land use transition matrix.And on this basis,the land use situation in 2025 was predicted with CA-MARKOV model.The main contents and conclusions of the thesis are illustrated as following:(1)The paper expatiated the related theories and methods of preprocessing,segmentation and object-oriented image classification systematically,applied the methods to the classification of remote sensing images,and then obtained the land use/covering information of the study area,which achieved the desired classification results.(2)The internal mechanism of land use change was reviewed,which provided the theoretical basis for land use change analysis.In this paper,the land use composition and structure change of the study area in 2005-2015 were studied.The results showed that the construction land increased sharply in 2005 and 2015,and the transportation land increased obviously.There was a slight increase in arable land and a relative reduction of saline-alkali area.The water area showed an obvious reduction.Bare land and green land showed a small reduction,which mainly transfered to the construction land and cultivated land.The GIS spatial analysis technique and the land use transfer matrix were used to study the transfer between all kinds of the land,and the driving factors of transfer were briefly analyzed.(3)The basic theory of cellular automaton and the basic ideas of research on land use change with cellular automaton model were expounded.After studying the principle and forecasting method of CA-MARKOV model,it was found that the model was suitable for the simulation and prediction of land use change.Therefore,this model was used to forecast the land use situation in the study area in 2025.The salinity will increase obviously in 2015-2025,which indicates that the risk of soil salinization will remain in the future.The expanding trend of construction land will continue,and the expansion pace of transportation land will slow down.