Changes And Mutation In Temperature And Precipitation Of China During 1960-2013 And Future Prediction

In order to study the characteristics of climate change in different regions of China,this paper classifies China into seven climatic zones according to the geographical location,The EOF,linear regression,R/S method and Mann-Kendall mutation test were used to analyze the space characteristics and future trend of temperature and precipitation of China by using the data of temperature and precipitation on 737 stations in China from 1960 to 2013.Revealing the basic characteristics of climate change in China in recent 54 years,and the response characteristics of climate change in various regions under the background of global warming.The results are as follows:(1)The analysis of temporal-spatial variations.The spatial distribution structure of temperature in China from 1960 to 2013 can be divided into three main distribution patterns:the distribution of national consistent,the reverse distribution of northeast-southwest and the distribution of northwest-northeast&southwest-southeast.In 1960-1980s,the whole country was in the cold period,In 1990s,the whole country began to warm up.The spatial distribution structure of precipitation can be divided into three main distribution patterns:the reverse distribution of the central&Tibet-other regions,the reverse distribution of central&southern-other regions and the interphase distribution of north-central-south.(2)The analysis of past change trends.The annual temperature of each region in China showed a significant rising trend.There was a highest linear warming rate in North China(0.031℃/a).There was a lowest linear warming rate in Southwest China(0.16℃/a).The national warming rate is 0.023℃/a.The seasonal temperature in different regions and the whole country showed an rising trend with varying degrees.North China has the highest linear warming rate in spring and summer(0.035℃/a&0.024℃/a).Northwest China has the highest linear warming rate in autumn(0.029℃/a).Northeast China has the highest linear warming rate in winter(0.037℃/a).The annual precipitation of China is increasing in different regions except the southwest.There was a highest increase rate of annual precipitation in East China(1.678mm/a).There was a lowest increase rate of annual precipitation in North China(0.327mm/a).The increase rate of national annual precipitation is 0.94mm/a.Seasonal precipitation in different regions and the whole country in spring,summer and autumn showed different trends,it showed an increasing trend in winter.Northeast China has the highest increase rate of precipitation in spring(0.779mm/a).South China has the highest increase rate of precipitation in summer(1.352mm/a).East China has the highest increase rate of precipitation in autumn(-0.719mm/a).Central China has the highest increase rate of precipitation in winter(1.563mm/a).(3)The analysis of future change trends.The hurst index of annual temperature in different regions of China is greater than 0.65,showing a sustained past trends strongly for 24 years.North China has a strongest sustained past trends for 27 years.Southwest China has a weakest sustained past trends for 16 years.Seasonal temperatures in all regions of China was sustained past trends strongly.Central China has a strongest sustained past trend in spring and winter for(13 years&14 years).South China has a strongest sustained past trend in summer for 12 years.Northwest China has a strongest sustained past trend in autumn for 11 years.The hurst index of annual precipitation in different regions of China is greater than 0.5,showing a sustained past trends for 12 years.There was a strongest sustained past trends in Northwest China for 13 years.There was a weakest sustained past trends in Southwest China for 7 years.Except for North China,northwest and Northeast China’s seasonal precipitation in China can not detect the future trend in winter and the trend of spring in Central China,all the other trends sustained past trends.East China has a strongest sustained past trend in summer and winter for(16 years&19 years).North China has a strongest sustained past trend in spring for 19 years.Southwest China has a strongest sustained past trend in autumn for 12 years.(4)The analysis of mutation test.In terms of annual temperature,North China and Northeast China mutated in the 1980s.East China,South China,Central China,Southwest China and the whole country all mutated in the 1990s.There was no mutation in the northwest.In terms of seasonal temperature,in spring,the Northeast China was mutated in1980,and East China,south China and north China were all mutated in the 1990s,and the Central China,Northwest China and Southwest China were mutated in the early 21st century.In summer,The South China was mutated in 1985,and North China and Northwest China were mutated in the late 1990s,and East China,and southwest China and the country were mutated in the early 21st century,and the Northeast China mutation is not obvious,and there was no mutation in central China.In autumn,South China,north China,southwest China and the country mutated in the 1990s,and South China,north China and the southwest and the country mutated in the 1990s,and East China and central China mutated in the early 21st century,and the Northwest China and Northeast China mutations are not obvious.In winter,the Northeast China was mutated in the late 1970s,and East China,South China,North China,Northwest China and the whole country were mutated in the 1980s,and Central China and Southwest China mutated in the 1990s.In terms of annual precipitation,East China,Northwest China,and the whole country were mutated in 1980s,and the mutations in South China,Northeast China,Central China,North China and the Southwest China are not obvious.In terms of seasonal precipitation,in spring,the North China,Northwest China and Northeast China were all mutated in the early 1980s,and the mutations in East China,south China,Central China,Southwest China,and the whole country are not obvious.In summer,the Northeast China was mutated in the early 1960s,and East China,North China and the whole country mutated in the early 1990s,and the mutations in South China,Central China,Northwest China,Southwest China are not obvious.In autumn,the Northwest China was mutated in 2000,and North China was mutated in 2007,and the mutations in East China,South China,Central China,Southwest China,Northeast China and the whole country are not obvious.In winter,the North China,Southwest China and the Northeast China were mutated in 1979,and the Central China and Northwest China and the whole country mutated in the early 1980s,and the mutations in East China and South China are not obvious.