The Efficiency Of Ebola Epidemic Prevention And Control Measures In The Three Countries Of West Africa

The Ebola disease, is the largest for the latest 4 decades, which begins in Guinea, West Africa since February 2014. And it poses a serious threat to the West Africa and beyond. There are more than 99.9 percent of global Ebola cases in the three countries of West Africa?Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone? which suffer the most. The effective prevention and control measures in the three countries of West Africa play a key role, with the help of the World Health Organization and other medical teams. Based on the existing dynamic model, new dynamic models corresponded to the situation of West Africa Ebola disease are established to analyze and compare the effect of prevention and control measures. We study and analyze the efficiency of prevention and control measures from two aspects, i.e., the SEIR related models and the models with isolated compartments.The main contributions of my thesis are as follows:?1?Based on the SEIR model, we adopt the data from the World Health Organization and get the values of early Ebola infection rates without prevention and control measures in the three countries of West Africa. Then, we predict the development of the Ebola epidemic. What's more, the results reflect the urgency and importance of Ebola prevention and control measures.?2?In view of different intensities of Ebola prevention and control measures in different periods, we establish new model with piecewise function b?t? and get the control factors k1 and k2 in the differential equations. By comparing the values and analyzing the different effect of control measures in each country, we draw a conclusion that the prevention and control measures in Liberia are the best, followed by Sierra Leone, and that in Guinea is relatively the worst. The results are consistent with the actual situation, and thus verify the correctness of the result.?3?Based on the different prevention and control means before and after the Ebola disease, the new SE_gE_qE_ggI_gI_qI_ggI_gqR model and SE_gE_qI_gI_qI_gqR model which reflect the actual situation well are established. We get the unknown parameters a₁, a₂, c₁ and c₂ values in each country. By data analysis, we evaluate the effect of prevention and control measures in definite classification respectively and make an overall comparison. Then, we conduct a comprehensive evaluation and draw a conclusion that the prevention and control measures in Liberia are the best, followed by Sierra Leone, and that in Guinea is relatively the worst. Finally, we analyze the sensitivity of parameters. Moreover, the results obtained by the model fit well with the data from the World Health Organization. The model reflects the actual situation and matches well with the real assessment. Above all, we reveal the efficiency of the prevention and control measures of the three countries well by quantitative analysis.It has a certain reference to screen more effective national prevention and control measures, and to take highly targeted prevention and control strategies.