Drought Risk Assessment In Low Liaohe Plain

Drought is a natural disasters that frequently occurs,widely spreads and can be hardly perceived during the process of development.It would have extremely bad effects in urban agglomeration,overpopulated and developed areas.In the context of global warming,the problem of drought disaster has been getting worse in recent years.The researches of drought risk assessment,is not only the most effective way to reduce the impact and losses from drought disaster,but also a hot spot of in the fields of water management and catastrophology,has a very important realistic value.According to the theory and signification of natural disaster risk,based on the theoretical support of Natural Disaster Risk Index method,drought risk assessment system is established,which integrates hazard,exposure,vulnerability and emergency response and recovery capacity.This paper provides a case study of the lower reaches of the Liaohe River Plain,which is one of the areas of which has most intense human development in northeastern China.The drought risk assessment system includes 15 indexes,such as:drought intensity,drought frequency,GDP density,population density,total water resources,land vegetative cover index,river-network density index,proportion of primary industry output,capitation water consumption,vulnerable population,livestock density,proportion of total sown area,average income,effective irrigated area,education expenditure proportion.Combine AHP with entropy method to make evaluation.Using Natural Disaster Risk Index method,Kriging interpolation to processing data of social economy,population etc in lower reaches of the Liaohe River Plain of 2013,sizing with natural break,come to these conclusions:(1)Analysis on the hazard of lower reaches of the Liaohe River Plain shows:Yingkou,north of Dawa county,Dashiqiao,north of Haicheng are in the lowest hazard zone;Tieling county,Faku county,are in the highest hazard zone;hazard is basically decreasing from northeast,southwest to southeast.(2)Analysis on the exposure of lower reaches of the Liaohe River Plain shows:northwest of Heishan county and northwest of Beizhen are in the highest exposure zone,most of Xinmin is in the lowest exposure zone,Xinmin as a center of circle,exposure increases approximate in concentric circles,generally,increases form northeast to northwest.(3)Analysis on the vulnerability of lower reaches of the Liaohe River Plain shows:vulnerability increases ladder shaped from northwest to southeast,south of Anshan,southeast of Haicheng,south of Dashiqiao,east of Yingkou are in the highest zone,Zhangwu county,northwest of Heishan county,northwest of Beizhen are in the lowest zone.(4)Analysis on the emergency response and recovery capacity of lower reaches of the Liaohe River Plain shows:emergency response and recovery capacity decreases approximate in concentric circles,Xinmin is the center of circle,include northwest of Shenyang,Xinmin is in the highest zone,Anshan,south of Haicheng,northwest of Heishan,northwest of Beizhen,south of Dashiqiao,southeast of Haicheng,southeast of Yingkou are in the lowest zone.(5)Analysis on the risk of lower reaches of the Liaohe River Plain shows:in the mass,the middle part of the plain is in lowest zone,northeast and southwest are both in highest zone,drought risk level is increasing from south to north,from middle part to northeast and southwest.East of Shenyang,Fushun are in the highest zone,Zhangwu county,west of Faku county,most of Xinmin are in lowest zone.