| In recent years, the state of global water resources and hydrology material recycling process by the impact of climate change is very obvious. Especially to high altitude mountain glaciers and snow melting water which is the major source of water for the arid inland river basin is the most significant. In the northwest arid area which is far from ocean, ice and snow melting water is not only an important source of water supply for the local survival, but also local seasonal flooding of the main reasons. Therefore, it is important for the establishment of a suitable to distributed hydrologic model for the arid inland river basin.This study selected in Urumqi River Basin hero bridge hydrological station as study area, which based on the nearly 60 year hydrometeorological data analysis of hydrological and meteorological elements evolution rules and characteristics, and the use of independent research and development of water resources of China Institute of water conservancy and Hydropower EasyDHM model, combined with basin DEM, landuse, soil types, meteorological and hydrological data, which built a set of distributed hydrological model which based on EasyDHM Urumqi River Watershed, and through the hypothesis of three climate change scenarios described runoff change process within the watershed, which provided technical support for the flood forecasting and seasonal flooding.Studies show that:(1) In Urumqi River Basin, Rainfall showed a clear growth trend, and temperature presented a significant increase, July temperature maximum, January temperature minimum. Snow area in the basin was not obvious downward trend, and inter annual variation of runoff increased,which had a big years difference. The factors which produce the inner diameter of the driving basin are temperature, precipitation, snow cover area, and the influence of each factor on runoff is promoted.(2) Correlation parameters of soil, river shape coefficient, runoff coefficient curve sensitivity had significant influence on runoff, in calibration and daily runoff simulation verification value and the measured value of the relative error less than 5%, Nash efficiency coefficients above 0.80,the correlation coefficients more than 0.90 showed that illustrative simulation Urumqi River basin runoff diurnal variation of high precision for EasyDHM model was adaptable in the area..(3) Based on the construction of distributed hydrological model, set three different climate scenarios to simulate the change of runoff, precipitation invariability, temperature increased of 2 degrees Celsius, runoff increased 8.7%; The temperature invariability and precipitation increased 10%, runoff increased 4.2%; Precipitation and temperature increased at same time, increased runoff amounted to 10.1%. The situation of runoff distribution in a year: when the precipitation was unchangeable, the temperature increased, runoff of the overall increased, the runoff variation rate in June, July, August was large, among July change rate was the largest,and the rate of change of minimum month was January. When only the precipitation changed, the runoff in July, August and September was greatly influenced by the precipitation increase, and the month of January, march, April was small influence. At the same time, the runoff change rate was the biggest in spring and summer, and the lowest in winter. |
