The Impact Of The Real Earnings Management Volatility On The Credit Risk Of Corporate Bonds

Since 2007, Chinese corporate bond market has gradually establish and improve, the market trading system is almost perfect, and the transaction amount continues to expand. However, with the "St Xiang Eqing" event, whose bond became the first principal default in China’s domestic bond market, causing the people both in practice circle and theory circle pay more attention to the corporate bond market and credit risk. Credit risk is the key factors which can affect the investment interests of both investors and the corporates. How to effectively identify and guard against corporate bonds credit risk has become the most concerned problem of China’s securities regulatory departments, and it is also the most urgent problem which influence the healthy development of China’s bond market. With the continuous improvement of the level of accounting supervision, the real earnings management has become the main way of earnings management. Because the real earnings management will impact the operating cash flows in the current and future periods, and thus its fluctuation will lead to the uncertainty of the future business enterprises, which will increase the uncertainty of accounting information, and the uncertainty of accounting information can affect the credit risk of corporate bond. Therefore, based on the perspective of accounting information uncertainty, and the influence of fluctuation of real earnings management research results to the credit risk of corporate bond, this thesis’research can help the China’s securities regulatory departments from the accounting information regulatory point of corporate bond market with empirical evidence and theoretical guidance.First of all, this thesis describes the development process of China’s corporate bond, in contrast to the corporate bonds in China have experienced two distribution system, approval system and approval system, analysis of the China’s credit rating agencies and auditors both financial intermediaries in the corporate bond issuance of corporate bonds credit risk identification. Secondly, because of the economic consequences of real earnings management, which will lead to the enterprise the current and future periods of operating cash flow uncertainty, which will increase the enterprise accounting information uncertainty, thereby affecting the enterprise cost of the assets distribution in the future, and which will lead to the credit risk of the corporate bond. On the basis of the theoretical analysis, using the Merton (1974) structure model, the thesis make a mathematical model deduction, from the point of view of mathematical logic, which will make it clear to the real earnings management volatility on the credit risk of corporate bond. Next, this thesis choose company bonds issued in 2010-2014 China’s Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed companies as samples, using multiple linear regression analysis to test the influence of fluctuation of real earnings management on the credit risk of corporate bonds. The results show that the greater the volatility of the real earnings management, the higher the credit risk of corporate bonds.Finally, based on the conclusions of this thesis, combined with current situation of the development of China’s corporate bond, from the point of view of the capital market regulator, we give a suggestion that to strengthen the supervision of the real earnings management of corporate bonds in China, reduce real earnings management degree of volatility, thereby reducing the Chinese corporate bond credit risk. The research on corporate bond credit risk influence factors provides a new perspective, to enrich the study of influencing factors of credit risk of corporate bonds in China, to further standardize the accounting information quality in China’s corporate bond market and promote the perfection of the related laws and regulations of the corporate bonds in our country has important theoretical value and practical significance.