An Empirical Study On The Impact Of Rmb Exchange Rate Changes On China’s Import And Export Trade

At the end of the 19 th century and the beginning of the 20 th century, the status of China’s foreign trade :import and export trade volume in the surplus all the year round, and present a trend of gradually expanding,long-term and excessive trade surplus cause excessive foreign exchange reserves,more trade frictions withmajor trading partners is accompanied by a excessive trade surplus and excessive foreign exchange reserves.The exchange rate as the soul of international finance, as a link to the economic trade, is an important factor to improve the trade balance, so the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate is pushed in the teeth of the storm position, at this time, the problem of insufficient domestic demand also emerge gradually, under the situation of pressure in foreign and domestic economic problems need to be solved, the reform of the RMB exchange rate is considered of strategic importance on China’s economic development, in July 2005 the exchange rate system into a managed floating exchange rate system, increased the flexibility of RMB exchange rate,at the same time left space for central bank intervention, the same day,the RMB exchange rate appreciation of 2%, according to the data, the RMB exchange rate has been in a state of continuous appreciation on the whole. The reform of RMB exchange rate system has a far-reaching impact on China’s trade. This paper mainly studies the impact of exchange rate regime reform and policy changes on China’s trade balance between 2005 and 2015.First of all, this paper briefly describes the theoretical basis of exchange rate changes on the impact of import and export trade, analyzes the impact of exchange rate changes on the import and export of direct and indirect mechanism. Elastic analysis method, absorption analysis method, the monetary analysis are classical theory of a country’s exchange rate on the impact of economic and trade: exchange rate devaluation can improve the trade balance, but would be improved by the combination of factors eventually. The second part studied the situation of RMB exchange rate and international balance of payments, and briefly describes the RMB exchange rate system policy changes and the basic trend of exchange rate betweeen 2005 and 2015, summarizes the basic situation of trade balance between the 11 years, discusses the relationship between the RMB exchange rate system and the trade balance based on the two parts. Finally from the perspective of empirical analysis begin to study: using August 2005 to October 2015 quarterly data as the sample, real effective exchange rate of RMB, RMB real effective exchange rate can comprehensively reflect the RMB exchange rate on the influence of China’s import and export trade. In considering these factors of trade dependence degree, foreign direct investment, foreign and domestic income level, using ADF test, co-integration and error correction test, impulse analysis and Granger causality test method to study the RMB real effective exchange rate changes impact on China’s imports and exports, and the trade balance.The conclusions drawn from the research are: Between exchange rate and import and export trade, the trade balance exists co-integration relationship in the long-term and the exchange rate on import trade, export trade exists significant causal relationship, in the long term, appreciation of RMB real effective exchange rate on import trade has negative effect, on the export has positive effect, on the trade balance has positive influence, in the short term, appreciation of RMB real effective exchange rate on import trade, export trade, trade balances have negative impact.In this paper, the actual effective exchange rate of the people in the future is predicted, and combined with the above conclusions and forecast analysis, the paper puts forward suggestions to deal with the RMB exchange rate fluctuations.