Study On The Influence Of U.S. Quantitative Easing Monetary Policy On Foreign Export Trade Of China

In 2008, the outbreak of the economic crisis, the United States in order to prevent further economic recession, began to row to take the quantitative easing monetary policy. As a matter of fact, in its positive effect on output in the United States at the same time, this policy for the global economy also produced profound influence.To this, the meaning of this article first discusses the quantitative easing monetary policy, and related theory; Secondly, introduces the background of the quantitative easing monetary policy implementation and three rounds of quantitative easing monetary policy measures and their effects, and use the Mundell Flemming model and J curve effect on U.S. quantitative easing monetary policy to analyze the impact of China’s export scale and found that it may have a negative impact on China’s export scale, and has the effect of time lag; On the theoretical analysis of the impact of China’s export structure, with the help of theory of factor endowments and Stowe Bohr- Samuelson theorem I found the quantitative easing monetary policy may to a certain extent, optimize the export structure in our country.Empirical analysis mainly focuses on the impact of China’s export scale and export structure two aspects. In the empirical analysis of the impact of China’s export scale, I use the impulse response function and variance decomposition to analyze its function effect, and also using the maximum time difference correlation analysis to the time lag effect analysis of the key, the use of mediation variables inspection intermediary effect to do analysis on it. Empirical conclusion is that the quantitative easing monetary policy has lag of the negative impact on China’s export scale, lag period roughly two months, and the influence is mainly by exchange rate channel and non-monetary asset prices channel affect China’s export scale. In the empirical analysis of the impact of China’s export structure, using the ARDL-ECM model to analyze the influence of the short term and long term effectiveness, in the intermediary effect to make use of intermediary variable test analysis. Empirical conclusion is, the quantitative easing monetary policy will be in a certain extent, inhibition of labor-intensive products exports, promote the export of primary products and technology intensive products, and the short-term longer-term small role. The mpact on the export of labor-intensive products is mainly through the exchange rate, export of primary products is mainly through the influence of non-monetary asset price channel, and technology intensive products export is mainly by the spread.Finally, based on the results of the analysis, suggestions are mainly rasied from the perspective of government and export enterprise. For governments, they should accelerate the internationalization of the RMB, trade-offs between exchange rate and the money supply, stable domestic price level, optimizing export structure, develop diversified market; In terms of China’s enterprises, should guarantee the quality of export products, the development of high-tech, pay attention to risk management, cultivating brand awareness.