Research On Customer’s Demand Change Judgement And Optimal Ordering Strategy

Among modern marketing activities, advertising, promotion and product technology innovation are becoming more and more frequently, which not only brings opportunities to enterprise managers, but also challenges to them. Although market activities such as advertising and promotion, can enlarge the demand of the product, make customers’ demand change, but when the demand will change and to what extent the demand will expand often have a lot of uncertainty, namely demand change has much uncertainty, which brings the enterprise managers great distress when they have to make decisions. Therefore, when enterprise managers cannot make sure whether the demand has changed or not, they should learn how to make the demand change judgement and the optimal ordering strategy more reasonably, and it has great important practical significance for the healthy development of the enterprise and improving the enterprise’s comprehensive competitiveness.Based on numerous research about supply chain demand change, the thesis studies the demand change judgement and optimal ordering policy when the retailer faces uncertain demand change under the following two assumptions:one is that the market demand and the selling price are deterministic linear reduction function relation; the other is that the market demand is random demand. The thesis makes two important contents as follows:First, under the assumption that the market demand and the selling price are deterministic linear reduction function relation, study the demand change judgement and optimal ordering policy when a single retailer faces uncertain demand change, build the model of how to make demand change judgement and optimal ordering policy, and analyze the following three factors’ influence on the retailer’demand change judgement:the demand change extent, the disposal cost of remaining products per unit and shortage cost per unit.Second, under the assumption that the market demand is random demand, study the demand change judgement and optimal ordering policy when a single retailer faces uncertain demand change, give the concrete expressions of demand change judgement model under the conditions that the market demand follows uniform distribution and exponential distribution respectively, and analyze several corresponding factors’influence on the retailer’demand change judgement.From the perspective of combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis, the thesis gives the method on making demand change judgement and optimal ordering policy to the retailer. Although it is based on numerous assumptions, the management ideas and methods it proposed have a certain reference value and practical significance when the enterprise faces uncertain demand change.