Optimization Analysis Of Decision-Making System And Risk Forecasting In International Project

International project tender is the first step for the contractor to enter the international market. Although the Chinese contractors in the international engineering turnover and the ENR contractor rankings have scored remarkable achievements, they are shorter period of time in the international project contracting market, and are short of realated expericence especially in the aspect of tender process compared with the international famous contractors. Therefore, it is necessary to explore effective methods to enhance bidding competitiveness of domestic contractors based on the reality of Chinese contractors. Risk cost is an important part of international project bidding quotation, and the study of risk is particularly necessary.Firstly, this paper analyzes the current situation of the Chinese contractors in the international engineering market and the related research, and puts forward solutions separately from the cost estimate, risk cost estimate and quotation Decision-making. Secondly, the thesis analyzes the Chinese contractors bidding system from risk perspective, identifies the key risk factors that affecting the tender price, and analyzes the related methods of risk estimation. Then,the paper introduces CBR and RBR technology to establish the prediction model of international project risk cost, and uses the model to predict the risk cost on the basis of previous case. Finally,the paper uses the game theory and the RBF neural network to build a quotation decision model under the combinatorial optimization theory, and verifies the model’s scientific nature by case.The paper comprehensively analyzes the problems existing in the Chinese contractors bidding quotation, divides the element of tender and optimizes the bidding process systematically.we hope this paper could provide theoretical and practical guidance on the enhance of Chinese contractors’ tender competition...