Research On The Applicability Of China’s Counter-cyclical Capital Regulation Index

Scholars generally believe that the financial system has a pro-cyclical features, particularly the behavior of the banking credit, pro-cyclical effect is obvious. Pro-cyclical banking sector to the banking industry and the whole financial system has brought a certain amount of risk. Basel Ⅲ proposed counter-cyclical capital regulation, the financial system in order to address risks arising from procyclicality. Counter-cyclical regulatory capital and institutional theory, it is an innovation for our country to guard against financial risks is of great significance. This paper focuses on Basel Ⅲ in counter-cyclical regulatory capital indicators were studied. First, the theoretical part of Basel Ⅲ in counter-cyclical capital regulation were discussed; Secondly, GDP growth rate, the credit / GDP gap, raising social / GDP gap, M2 growth rate, credit growth, credit growth / GDP growth this rate of six indicators were studied by analyzing these indicators and trends consistent macro-climate indices, and the use of statistical methods to calculate the correlation coefficient between them, Cointegration relationship between them and Granger relations, found statistically credit / GDP gap indicators and scale of social financing / GDP gap index has better applicability. In response to these two indicators, the paper will be withdrawn capital cushion Basel Ⅲ method proposed to China’s actual use of the economy of our country in the first quarter of 2003 to the relevant data for the fourth quarter of 2015 was calculated and found two indicators in the development of the real economy have good applicability, but there are also some disadvantages, so there is a need in conjunction with other indicators related to common use.