The Commercial Housing Price Prediction And Analysis In Beijing According To Gray Theories

In recent years, the factors of commodity housing price have been a hot research question with rising prices, many domestic scholars studied it from different angles. In order to promote the commercial housing market information symmetry, equity trading, and guide consumers to expect prices reasonably, this paper predict the future price of Beijing by GM(1,1) model. In order to provide effective macro-control recommendations for government to promote the healthy development of the commercial housing market, based on previous research results, this paper analyze the factors of commercial housing price in Beijing from supply factors, demand factors, environmental factors and build the factor model of commercial housing price according to the price formation mechanism and combining the characteristics of commercial housing market in Beijing. This paper will identify the dominant factor by quantitative analysis with Gray Association Degree Theory. According to the analysis of economic data in recent years, we find: development loans, the level of economic development, investment of real estate, income level,land costs and real estate taxes are the main factors of commercial housing price in Beijing. Based on the principle of direct manipulation of macro-control, this paper proposes policy recommendations from credit, taxation and land. Improving credit policies: Banks should strengthen the audit of development loans and housing loans, manage the use of development loans and build consumers’ personal credit system; Banks should control the investment in real estate market and optimize the structure of housing supply and demand by credit differences. Improving the tax policy of real estate:Improving the tax policy of trading links and holding links, continuing to reduce the tax burden on lease type housing. Improving the land policy: Improving the type of land management to prevent local governments relying on land finance seriously; Handle the behaviors of hoarding, speculation, idling land to increase the land supply efficiency; Improving the "auction" system on land transfers.