Research On The Model Of Energy Saving Forecasting Of Paper Making Enterprises In Certain Region

With the rapid development of economy, the work of energy saving and emission reduction in the paper making industry has become the focus of the government energy conservation authorities. Paper making industry is one of the nine high energy consuming industries in China, paper-making enterprises are faced with a huge pressure of energy saving under the pressure of environment, policy and market. During the period of 12 th Five-Year, the paper making industry’s energy saving and emission reduction have achieved the expected goal in many aspects. But with the energy shortage, and higher requirements on energy saving and emission reduction during the period of 13 th Five-Year and the paper making industry faced by the situation of domestic and international economic downturn, to maximize the use of limited resources, energy conservation has become a topic that paper companies have to face. Therefore, how to predict the energy-saving potential of the paper making industry in the macro level and to provide energy-saving reference direction and advice to the government and enterprises is particularly important.This paper takes the paper industry in a certain area as the research object, through a large number of literature researches and analysis of the paper making industry and other industries, and study the prediction method used in the main energy consumption industry. According to the data characteristics of the papermaking industry in certain region, starting from the energy-saving potential of quantitative indicators, selected the product energy saving to characterize the energy-saving potential, and according to the relationship between energy consumption, energy consumption and output, transformed into the target variable of "energy consumption" and "output" as the energy saving potential prediction model. Through analysis of energy consumption and production and its related influencing factors, expanded from the single forecasting model and combination forecasting model, choose the ARIMA model, multivariate ARIMA model, BP neural network model, dimension and new information GM(1,1) model as the research object, and base on this, study the BP neural network model and equal dimension new information GM(1,1) model in different ways, which is composed of two kinds of combination model, through practical data verify the model combination forecast effect is better, and then use neural network compensation of Grey Combination Forecasting Model to realize the prediction of energy consumption and output as the final model, and finally estimated the energy-saving potential. At the end of this paper use grey relational analysis method to analyze the energy saving from the perspective of energy structure and enterprise, which provide the theoretical basis for the qualitative analysis of the energy saving. The main research work of this paper as below:(1) Through the research of forecast methods on the energy saving potential of the paper industry and other key energy consuming industries, summed up the existing main methods of energy-saving potential forecasting, analyzed and discussed the ARIMA model and grey prediction and BP neural network and combination model.(2) Based on the analysis of the data characteristics of papermaking industry in the region and combined with the actual situation, analysis and screening the factors related to the impact on energy consumption and production by Spearman correlation analysis and grey relational analysis method, and then constructed the ARIMA model and variable amount of ARIMA model, BP neural network model, dimension and new information GM(1,1) model four single forecasting model and based on neural network compensation Grey Combination Prediction Model and based on Grey Theory of BP neural network combination forecast model of the combination model.(3) The monthly data reported by enterprises in certain region’s paper industry,through computer, simulation and calculation were carried out respectively in this paper, we discuss four kinds of single model and two kinds of combination model, verifies the feasibility of the combination model can achieve a better effect, the through combinations of prediction and the results are applied to the estimation of the potential of energy saving.(4) Proposed by using grey correlation analysis method to analyze the energy saving and energy structure, energy consumption enterprises changes compared to the same period of the relationship, and puts forward unit energy-saving rate of the energy section of concept, realize from the numerical and the degree of difficulty to reflect the energy-saving potential, then by analyzing the corresponding results of the paper is different in various types of energy use changes and different enterprise the change of energy consumption of energy saving the influence degree and energy-saving difficulty degree, which provides a theoretical reference for the energy-saving work of planning.