Interactive Fuzzy Stochastic Optimization Method For Agricultural Water Allocation

In recent years, due to the growth of population and advancement of modernization, the human water consumption has presents a linear upward trendency. However, the natural systems can provide water quantity is confined, the relative shortage of water resources has become a major factor which restricting regional socio-economic development. Agriculture irrigation has been widespread attention around the world which not only for food security considerations, irrational irrigation management may also directly lead to environmental degradation and resource shortages issues. Based on this background, it is essential to carry out the water resources optimization management and agricultural irrigation management to solve the water supply and demand crisis and guarantee the sustainable development of agriculture economy. Besides, the regional water resources management process involves many complex factors, and the agricultural irrigation system is a complicated systematic project involving a variety of hydrological variables and multi-link. System components and mutual relations are characterized by the presence of uncertainty, this makes the application of traditional methods is limited. Therefore, the aim of this study is to advance inexact optimization approaches to handle such uncertainties in water resources management and agricultural irrigation management, and then applied to Hetao regional which located in Inner Mongolia to provide a scientific basis and technical support for integrated decision-making and sustainable development of the basin. Firstly, according to the local situation of serious shortage of water resources, on the basis of the statistics of investigation, this set up an interactive fuzzy-boundary interval programming (IFBIP) model for multi-water soucrces joint supply water under uncertainty. Further, for the outstanding problems of agricultural water in Hetao Irrigation District, through by introducing two-stage stochastic programming model, an interactive two-stage fuzzy stochastic programming (ITFSP) was constructed. The results demonstrate that that the ITFSP model could deal with dual uncertainties expressed as interval fuzzy boundary, and generate optimal decision scheme of multi-sources and multi-users configuration under different membership degrees, and the complex tradeoff relationship between the satisfaction degree of economic target and the feasible degree of constraint is obtained. ITFSP model can be more conducive to the formulation of water resources planning and economic punishment for the relevant decisions, and combined with four policy scenarios to analyze the optimal agricultural policy options under different flows, which support decision makers adjust agricultural crop planting structure, promoting the sustainable development of agricultural economy.