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Credit Risk Assessment Of High-tech Listed Small And Medium Sized Enterprises Based On KMV Model

Posted on:2017-03-03Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:Y Q ZhangFull Text:PDF
GTID:2309330488984548Subject:Quantitative Economics
Abstract/Summary:
In China’s Industrial Development Program in the Future introduced in 2015, ’made in China’ has been upgraded to’quality manufactured in China’ and ’intellectually manufactured in China’, which fully shows the importance China attached to the development of high-tech small and medium-size enterprise. In the tide of market economy, small and medium-size enterprises (SMEs) have formed the very backbone of China’s economic development. However, high-tech listed small and medium-size enterprises (high-tech listed SMEs) still belonging to SMEs, have the characteristics of small capital scale, big management risk, and have more trouble getting loans from banks compared with the large state-owned enterprises. Besides that, in the case of information asymmetry and the absence of effective credit risk measurement, commercial banks in the process of making loans are often one size fits all, therefore the small and medium-size high-tech listed enterprises with potential are developing slowly due to lack of funding. On the other hand, with China’s capital market gradually opening to the outside world, foreign financial institutions set up branches in China constantly that produced a huge pressure of competition to commercial banks in China continuously. It is noted that credit risk management is the embodiment of bank competitiveness. Improving the bank’s credit risk assessment and management level is the priority for all. Therefore, both high-tech listed SMEs and commercial banks are in urgent need of an effective credit risk measurement.To this end, in this paper, the high-tech listed SMEs applying KMV model were studied. There were four parts in the study. Firstly, this article expounded the related credit risk theory of high-tech listed SMEs. Secondly, the article introduced the KMV model, and revised the KMV model in accordance with the actual conditions of small and medium-size high-tech listed enterprises; Thirdly, the article performed the empirical analysis of credit risk for high-tech listed SMEs by using the adjusted KMV model. Finally the paper drew the conclusions.In this paper, the results showed that, in order to make the KMV model fit for the credit risk measurement of high-tech listed SMEs, the amendment of enterprise value of equity, volatility and default point setting was necessary. When default point was set in DP, that is DP= SD+25%LD, the adjusted KMV model is effective and can identify the credit risk of high-tech listed small and medium-sized enterprises. When the default distance was more than 3 by using the adjusted KMV model, it implies that business running is good, therefore the bank can grant loans to the enterprise. When default distance is between 1.1 and 3,it implies that enterprise production and operation are in trouble and enterprise’s profit is negative. And the bank should be careful to make loans to it. When the default distance is less than 1.1. it implies the deterioration of enterprise production and operation, continuing losses, and the bank should refuse to make loans to the corporation.
Keywords/Search Tags:High tech listed SMEs, credit risk, KMV model, default distance
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