Research The Coordination Mechanism By The Freshness Of The Allowing Shortage Perishable Products

This paper mainly makes research on the sales problem of one type of perishable products by taking sales strategy of seller as main study object.Seller can get the demand data of consumers in the products sales process. In the second chapter, this article takes perishable product of onion in Changzhou Lingjiatang agriculture market as example. Presume that the deteriorating rate of onion in room temperature obeys the weibull distribution and the deteriorating rate under refrigerated conditions is a constant,predict the following demand amount by using time series model ARMA for existing sales data of sellers, but the market change can’t be predicted, which will cause inconsistent situation between predicted demand amount and actual demand amount. The raw material of manufacturer is perishable product, because the preservation cost for raw material is relatively high, the manufacture can only adopts strategy of producing products with maximum production capacity in harvest season. Because the manufacturer does not have demand data of product, both excessive and less production amount will cause damage and loss of profit.This paper mainly makes research on three situations that may possibly happened to sellers during sales process: first, predicted demand amount is larger than actual demand amount and seller adopts strategy of price decreasing on old products; second, predicted demand amount is equal to actual sales amount, but situation of shortage of product will happen because the production capacity of manufacturer can’t meet the demand amount of production cycle; third,predicted sales amount is less than actual sales amount, which causes seller to adopt strategy of delayed delivery.Based on above three listed situations, it can be learned from established model that no matter in which situation, the profit of joint marketing by sellers are bigger than the profit without adopting any cooperation measures. Sellers will actively seek cooperation with supplier for bigger profit or smaller loss, which increase the profit of the whole supply chain.