Cross Regional Land Index Trading And Risk Analysis

In recent years, with the development of China’s industrialization, urbanization, informationization, modernization of agriculture, more and more rural population moved to urban, the increasing demand for urban construction land. Appeared in short supply phenomenon. Additionaly, with a large number of farmers entering the city to work and live and the farmer’s priorities of production and life has gradually shifted to the city which resulted in a large number of rural homestead idle and the village became hollowed. Due to the loss of population and industrial structure adjustment, resulting in a large number of township enterprises, rural schools, rural homestead, abandoned land and rural collective construction land idle or inefficient use of state. Urban construction land supply and the rural construction land in a large number of idle formed a sharp contrast, it has become C hina’s land use and management of contradictions to be resolved. In order to solve this contradiction, break the shackles in the current land management system, realize the land resource optimal allocation of, the Local governments of Zhejiang, Tianjin, Jiangsu, Anhui, C hengdu, Chongqing lanuched the cross regional land index trading system test, such as "allowance trading index" and "urban-rural construction land" and "land ticket transactions" cross regional land transaction index test method. Land index trading system can effectively alleviate urban and rural construction land conflicts, land resources optimal allocation. But it is exploring the small scale test, in the implementation process will inevitably still exist various problems.This paper makes a systematic analysis of the land index trade in Ezhou C ity, using AHP and fuzzy evaluation method to identify risk, risk assessment, risk assessment and risk assessment. The risk identification is carried out from the point of view of the subject object of land index transaction. It identified 4 major categories of risk: risk to farmers, risk to the government, risk to developers and risk to cultivated land, and 12 risk points: rights and interests guarantee risk, production and operation risk, living environment risk, government decision- making risk, social security risk, Financial income risk, market risk, loan risk, policy change risk, reduce the number of cultivated land risk, declining quality of cultivated land risk and cultivated land abandonment risk. Qualitative and quantitative research on the risk of the entire system and the size of the risk through the risk estimation. The results indicate that the risks are from large to small are risk to farmers, risk to cultivated land, risk to developers and risk to the government, and the value of risk is 5.5693, 5.4262, 4.7381 and 3.9742. The smallest risk is risk to the government, and the others are medium risk. The land index trading system comprehensive risk value is 5.2487, and it is medium risk within the controllable range. Although land index trading is in the controllable range of medium risk, but we need to be vigilant and take the necessary precautions. According to the farmers’ risk, the influence factors of farmers’ risk perception on their willingness to participate in the transaction of land index was carried out, and found that the main factors affecting farmers participate in land index trading are age, area of housing, policy intervention, whether the compensation is in place, change of environment, income stability, agricultural operations etc. According to the research, area of housing has a positive effect on willingness of farmers to participate in the transaction of land index, but age, policy intervention, whether the compensation is in place, change of environment, income stability and agricultural operations has a negative effect on it.According to the risk analysis results, suggestions can be put forward from the folling aspects protect the rights and interests of farmers,strengthen the protection of arable land comprehensively, establish the income distribution mechanism, strengthen supervision and management, and improve the relevant supporting policies and regulations etc.