Join The TPP:Comply With The Situation Or Take Other Approaches

Since World War II, the development of economic globalization, the global scope of goods, services, military and other international ties have become increasingly close. In the past, all the countries in the world are hoping to achieve the liberalization and deregulation of goods by the multilateral trade negotiation of WTO, thus sharing the interests of trade in the international scope. But with the stagnation of the Doha negotiations, countries began to shift to regional economic organizations, have been involved in bilateral or multilateral free trade area, the regional economic cooperation began to set off a climax. With the economic downturn after the U.S. financial crisis, the European debt crisis after the outbreak of the EU’s economic outlook has become bleak. Correspondingly, it is the rapid rise of the Asia Pacific region. In order to get rid of the negative impact of the financial crisis, The United States proudly announced to join the trans-pacific partnership agreement (TPP), and dominate the process, gradually drew in other countries to join actively. In less than 5 years, the rapid expansion of the member states of TPP up to 12, the international influence gradually growing. The TPP, however, so far, has not invited China to join in.On October 6,2015, the negotiation process for more than 5 years of TPP finally preliminary agreement, although the TPP reached a basic agreement to eventually be able to be accepted and implemented by 12 countries has a long way to go, but the TPP as the high-profile regional trade agreements in Asia Pacific region, the contents are very comprehensive and standards setting are strictly, inclusively and openly, the TPP will produce the important effects to the Asia Pacific trade patterns, international politics and trade system in the future. As the world’s largest trading nation, China has not been invited to join the TPP up to now. So we should keep a sober mind, pay close attention to the progress of TPP and study its influence earnestly, to meet the challenge by a positive attitude.This article first introduced the thesis research background and the main purpose, and illustrates the research significance. The second is for some of the basic research situation at home and abroad are analyzed and summarized, designing idea of the text has carried on the brief explanation, and then describes the origin, process, main content and characteristics of the TPP in detail; then it goes further to explore the influence of TPP’s development to China’s political and economic, meanwhile analysis and forecast the future development trend of the TPP. According to current situation of the above, we have to respond in a timely manner, formulate scientific and reasonable scheme to cope up with the TPP. At first, this paper use the method of empirical analysis-----the gravity model to test the influence on Chinese trade flows, and detailed studies the costs and benefits by joining the TPP. Built on the basis of these analyses, from the " comply with the situation ", namely to join the TPP and " take other approaches ", that is to give up the TPP, to analyze the present situation of China, finally made the corresponding countermeasures. Hope that through this article research can provide certain reference for our country to adapt to changes in the international situation, but also able to enrich theory knowledge base to a certain extent.Although the TPP exclude China in the current, but through the above study, TPP’s many trade rules more than an ideal state, from the ideal return to reality, the road is very bumpy. Therefore, we should maintain a wait-and-see attitude, neither positive nor to refusal, through the establishment of multilateral or bilateral FTA with neighboring countries, deepen the reform of economic system, use "One Belt one Road" strategic policy, to meet the opportunities and challenges of the new round of writing and reconstruction of the international trade rules.