Research On Mutual Relationship Between Logistics Industry And Industry Development In Guangdong

As an important manufacturing base in China and the world, the core of Guangdong’s economic industry has been the export and processing of foreign trade. However, with the increasingly fierce market competition, land and labor costs rise, the resources and environmental constraints, the national industry and export policy adjustment, Guangdong’s economic competitive advantage is gradually reduced, the transformation and upgrading of industrial development in the inevitable.The development of logistics industry has important significance to optimize resources, promote upgrading of manufacturing industry and development adjustment, improve the quality and efficiency of economic operation.What is the relationship/mutual promotion/the drive between the development of logistics industry and regional industrial development in Guangdong? How to develop the logistics industry to promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial development in the region? These are the core issues that need to be studied at present.In this paper, based on the theory of logistics industry and industrial development, according to Guangdong in 1978-2013 annual gross domestic product, the logistics industry output value and three industrial output value,analysis and study of the relationship. From the data trend chart, the logistics industry with GDP/three major industries have a clear positive relationship between the common growth. To carry out the stationary test, the relationship between the logistics industry and the first industry and the second industry is found, logistics industry is divided into the two order difference between the third industries and the region’s GDP, which shows that there is a good relationship between the logistics industry and the first/second industry. Through the Granger causality test and cointegration test, there is a long-term stable cointegration relationship between the logistics industry and the first industry, and there is no long-term stable cointegration relationship between the the region’s GDP/second industry/third industry. By constructing VEC model of logistics industry and the first industry, the first industry has a strong driving effect on the development of logistics industry, and the logistics industry has a weak driving role in the first industry. Through the model stability test, impulse response function and variance decomposition method, the first industry is the first industry to promote the logistics industry is more obvious. Finally, based on the above theoretical analysis results, the development strategy of logistics industry based on regional industry development is put forward.