Research On The Influence Of Coal Price Fluctuations On Economic Growth Of Shanxi Province

Coal resources are abundant in Shanxi Province, which is also an important energy base in China, is known as the coal-rich province. The output of coal industry accounted for half of the entire industrial output in Shanxi Province, coal industry occupies a central position in the industrial, is also the pillar industry which contributes to the economic growth of Shanxi. Along with the "golden years" of the coal market, the economic grew in an increasing rate. But by entering 2012, with the downturn of national coal market, Shanxi coal market plummet, which had a huge impact on economic growth, restructuring development is imminent.In view of this, the introduction part of this article fist reviews the literature review at home and abroad which illustrates the relationship between coal price fluctuations and the economic growth. Then analyzing the theory of the effect of coal price fluctuation on economic growth in the first chapter, based on this, analysis of the conduction mechanism of coal price fluctuation on the economic growth, and establishes the conduction path model. The second chapter, combined with relevant data, the empirical analysis states the status of the coal industry in the industrial of Shanxi. In the third chapter, analyzed the factors which affecting the coal price fluctuation from the fluctuated history of coal prices. From previous text conduction path, in the fourth chapter, through series stationarity test, Granger causality test and cointegration test, demonstrating the effects which coal price fluctuations have on the amount and structure of macroeconomic. In the fifth chapter, based on the foregoing discussion and the status of economic development and coal industry in Shanxi, proposed the corresponding countermeasures.Research methods include:literature review method, according to the research purpose of the paper, by looking over the relevant documents, we have a clear understanding on the current status of the research; theoretical analysis, theory lay the foundation for the paper to analyze and then obtaining the conclusion; empirical analysis, identifying the specific relationships between variables the use of evidence by this method, then puts forward countermeasures for further rational development of the coal industry; fourth, comparative analysis, through the longitudinal comparison, presents different features of Coal price fluctuations in the last decade in Shanxi.The conclusion:first, through stationarity test, CP, GDP, INV, CONS, INX series are I (1) sequence and granger causality exist between the sequences.Second, on the basis of series stationarity test, by building the VAR model, verified the cointegration between coal price fluctuations and the structure of the output variables, INV, CONS, GDP and INX, and through the cointegration equations,concluded that the coal price fluctuation has the long-term positive effect on the investment and consumption, having a negative effect on the import and export, namely coal price fluctuates 1%, GDP varies 34% investment and consumption changes 0.4803% and 1.5009% in the positive direction respectively;, Import& Export has 5.3830% negative changes.Third, the coal price fluctuation is not only directly affect the economic growth, but also by influencing the investment, consumption and import export to indirectly affect the growth of economy.