Reserch On The Liquor Industry’s Stock Prices Fluctuated By The Eight Rules

Under the impact of the 2012 national "eight rules", the liquor industry began to ebb. The limitation of high-end liquor consumption becamea fuse which causedthe liquor products unmarketable and it’s price slumped.All these indicates the coming of "cold winter" of liquor industry.In this article, it study the effect of "eight rules" on the liquor industry’s stock price based on the event study method.In this article, it introduces the research background, content and methods at first, then give a brief introduction of the event study method and the relevant literature at home and abroad. In the third chapter, according to the characteristics of the liquor industry, the effect of the implementation of the "eight rules" is studied. In the subsequent quantitative analysis, it calculate and analyze the average abnormal return and cumulative average abnormal returns in the period of the "eight rules" event based on the standard event study method using 12 listed liquor companies as the research sample. As the cumulative average abnormal returns is equal to-9.93%,it shows the event has a significant effect on the share price. At the same time, it set up the post event window to study effect of the “eight rules” on the liquor industry’s share price in a longer term based on the monthly return.As the cumulative average abnormal returns reaches to-90.4% after the event in 20 months,it shows the event also has a significant effect on the share price for a long time. In order to further explain the effect by different factors, the fifth chapter divide the sample into three group and analyze how "eight rules" works on the premium、second- and third-tier line liquor brand. Then, combined with abnormal return and financial performance, this article evaluates different strategy and effect which liquor companies deal with the policy. In the conclusion part,it offer somes sugestions for the liquor industry in the period of adjustment, expecting make some contributes to the enterprise and investors.