Study On Plan Of Corn Futures Hedging

China who has international influence is a great country on corn production and consumption. With the world’s economic integration, now, the corn price information in the word is closely linked with it in China. The corn futures are developing fast, the transaction scale is continuously extending, and the price of corn dominant contract is higher and higher since 2004 when the corn futures listed again. Because of the high price and the government’s support policies, the corn industry grows faster. From the beginning,the corn was of short supply, then the supply exceeded demand. The oversupply contributed to collapse in price at the beginning of 2015 and at the end of 2015 it shocked at a low price, now the new pattern appears on. Exposing to the risk, related industries begin to suffer loss. Hedging plays an important role in futures market, nowdays, more and more enterprises involving in hedging attracted by future market on track, hedging is a effective way to avoid risk. And optimal hedge ratio is the core of hedging, A large number of domestic scholars or aboard do many theoretical and empirical research, this paper summarizes the past hedging theory and empirical study, summing up the development of optimal hedging ratio, and analyzing the current trend of corn prices, on the basis of above to design the corn futures hedging solutions.Through the analysis of domestic and foreign data on corn production and consumption,this paper draw a conclusion that there is a recession in demand and overproduction in corn, also analyze the risk of the related enterprises facing, the necessity of corn hedging and list the problems need to pay attention to in the hedging. Making stationary test, cointegration and build a ECM model to calculate the optimal hedging ratio using the data of futures prices and spot prices from May 26,2014 to November 3,2015 which come from DEC daily closing price of corn. To get continuous data the future ones are selected before delivery month. And created a stage phase analysis, apply different hedging ratio under different price trends, this method is more close to the actual situation. In hedging plan design, using the technical analysis and fundamental analysis combined with the relevant policy to forecast the trend of corn prices, from the perspective of production enterprises, breaking the traditional hedging theory that production enterprises hedging is sold, using the combination of selling and buying hedging, to hope it can make some help to the production enterprise.