| After China entered the high-speed development of urbanization stage, no doubt, faster and higher requirements are put forward for the construction of infrastructure. But the traditional form of the government as the main investor of infrastructure investment have been unable to bear pressure of lots of money for large-scale infrastructure construction, infrastructure construction was an urgent need to other funding support, so project financing model was produced accordingly.Infrastructure project faces all kinds of risks in the process of financing, how to reasonable share of these risks, is related to the direct interests of the parties. A government guarantee as an important form of risk sharing, has a great influence on the the smooth implementation of the project financing. Therefore, the research of government guarantees problem in infrastructure project financing has important practical significance, under the background of Chinese government vigorously promote the PPP mode, the government how to optimize the guarantee project selection is a real problem now.Through in-depth analysis of the related basic theory of project financing, project financing was concluded some characteristics:the strong financing capability, flexible and diverse financing ways, reasonable share the project financing risk. Through the analysis of the relationship between the project financing of participants, project investment structure, financing structure, capital structure and credit guarantee structure is interaction, mutual influence, when design project financing structure, the four coordinated relations should be considered. Summarized several kinds of project financing mode which commonly used in practice, such as BOT, PPP, ABS and so on, these were further theory basis of project financing risk management research.From these risk factors influencing the PPP project financing smoothly such as income, interest rate changes, with the aid of the WSR system methodology to analyzed systematically and continuous dynamic activities of project financing risk, "in the past", "now", "the future" of project finance were unified organically in together, the 3d of the PPP project financing risk comprehensive evaluation model based on WSR was built, through numerical examples verified that the evaluation model can effectively solve the comprehensive evaluation problem in the process of PPP project financing risk, then can better to share the risk.On the basis of the project financing risk evaluation, that the government guarantee for the success or failure of financing have the important influence was confirmed. Through the analysis of the government to guarantee the project selection criteria, that government guarantees for the PPP infrastructure project selection problem is essentially a multi-objective decision problem was concluded. The advantage of goal programming method was referenced, from the economic constraints, cost constraints, financial impact, annual financial risk constraints these four aspects to analyze problems, chance constrained programming model is established, and the complex choice of government guarantee project was quantitated, thus that can be more reasonable for the government to choose more efficient PPP guarantee project provides a beneficial tool.Chance constrained programming model is proposed in this paper can filtrate the project which meet government’ selection criteria, and can realize the expected goal of project, and provide the government guarantee to it, avoid blind and excessive assurance to waste of financial capital and the deterioration of the government financial burden. Goal programming model is built in the objective function is to minimize unnecessary deviation variable weighting and, thus, the government can get relative to target a group of guarantees that the optimal project combination, relatively, this group of optimized guarantee project can produce the greatest economic and social benefits, and make the lowest cost of government guarantees. |
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