Study On Construction And Application Of The Post Evaluation Of Coal-to-liquids Project

The coal occupies an irreplaceable key role in the energy structure of China which is "rich in coal, poor in oil, less gas". With the rapid development of economy,the consumption of oil and gas gradually increased, self-sufficiency rate is unable to meet the demand, the unstable factors of China’s energy security is increasing.Coal-to-liquids technology is in constant development and improvement in our country as the oil alternative energy sources, lots of demonstration project has been successfully put into operation.Project post evaluation is an important means for management of the project. It improves the level of project management and economic efficiency and maintains the sustainable development of the project through the analysis of the project construction process, technology level and economic benefits. At present, there is few studies focused on the project post evaluation which has not formed a complete knowledge system. Therefore, the lecture do a deep research on the theory, methods and applications of coal-to-liquids project post evaluation in order to put forward the feasible countermeasure for the development of coal-to-liquids projects and provide some beneficial reference for the future implementation.Based on the introduction of the development process and the research status of the project post evaluation, this paper summarizes the relevant theoretical basis of the concept of project post evaluation, management innovation and sustainable development, and focuses on the analysis of the coal oil project. Then, establish the index system of coal-to-liquids post evaluation combined with the actual characteristics of coal-to-liquids project according to the completeness, accuracy and objectivity, scientific principles. Then set 5 first grade indexes which consist of the implementation process, technology, performance, management innovation and project sustainability of the project, and divided into 14 second grade indexes in detailed. The entropy weight has been improved to calculate the weight of first grade index considering the consistency of expert opinion which have solved the difficult problem of the comparison of first grade index from different area. Combine the improved entropy weight method and analytic hierarchy process to calculate the weight of each second index and get the final weight according to the comprehensive analysis of the difference of index weight. Then, the evaluation model of coal-to-liquids project is established by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to get the results of the project post evaluation. Finally, take the 160000 tons/year coal-to-liquids demonstration project of Yitai group as the background to do a case analysis, and put forward some constructive advice for the future development of enterprise. The research can provide useful reference for the managers ofcoal-to-liquids enterprise and the scholars who study in evaluation analysis.