Dynamic Econometric Analysis Of The Driving Factors Of Xinjiang Tourism Development

Through socio-economic data of Xinjiang from 2001 a to 2012 a, the thesis constructs the index system of driving factors in Xinjiang tourism development from the following seven aspects, including social and economic conditions, infrastructure, the public service level, related policies, the ecological environment, tourism service capacity and the storage of tourism resources. With the method of Delphi method, through three rounds of scoring initially established index factors, which the driving factor index weight is determined, through constant adjustment and correction,which using the analytic hierarchy process; Through the Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficients analysis from the driving factor index system to eliminating linear correlation was not significant variables, which weakened the interaction between variables; With regard to the selected indicators of integration analysis, using principal component analysis method for quantitative diagnosis of the main driving factors of the tourism development in Xinjiang, and in-depth analysis of the driving factors of the internal mechanism; Using multiple linear regression model to study tourism income in domestic and international and all kinds of driving factor between the relationship, by the test for goodness of fit and the significance test of regression coefficient to validated the principal component analysis of the results, and establish a quantitative model for the development of tourism in Xinjiang; Which is classified 14 prefectures from the region in Xinjiang by the system cluster analysis. The results show that:(1)Degree of confidence in the 0.01 significance level, It is found that city water penetration rate, city gas penetration rate, chemical oxygen demand(COD) emissions and sulfur dioxide emissions, the four factors of the correlation coefficient tends to zero, the variables between linear relationship is weak.(2)social and economic conditions, the storage of tourism resources, the state of infrastructure, the public service level and tourism service capacity are the five main motives affecting tourism development in Xinjiang, and social crisis is the most critical restricting factor.(3)Regression analysis is adopted to establish the regression equation by the goodness of fit and test of significance that inbound tourism income and four driving factor between the correlation coefficient is 0.974, fitting linear regression determination coefficient R2=0.949, which the correlation coefficient is 0.987 between domestic tourism income and four driving factor, fitting linear regression determination coefficient R2 = 0.975, indicating how well the model fits the data.(4)Using systematic cluster analysis will be 14 prefectures of tourism development in Xinjiang from geographically divided into characteristic of Port tourism zone, natural and cultural resources tourist area, natural scenery and folk custom area, tourism resource poor areas, tourism development lag area, industrial tourist area, two "leader" tourist area. The study will provide certain reference for the transformation and upgrading of Xinjiang tourism, and then further promote the sustainable and stable development of its tourism.