The Empirical Research Based On Market Forecasting On The Choice Of Bank Bond Portfolio Strategy

This paper first analyzed the basic situation of China’s bond market, and then introduced the related theory and method of bond portfolio management. After that, the paper used the empirical analysis methods to get main factors influencing the bond investment and the bond market. Based on the actual case analysis, the paper explored how to use the positive management strategy to adjust portfolio terms and structure, increasing interest returns, and getting excess returns to overstep the average level of the bond markets.The innovation of this paper is to introduce the interest rate sensitivity model, which used to estimate the effects of market rates changes for bond portfolio returns. The method of building the model is simple, easy to operate, more important thing is that using this model, investor can obtained accurate data of each varieties, period, and account type bonds, thus provide a basis for various angle analysis changes in portfolio and performance attribution.Through research, the paper aimed at the domestic commercial Banks in terms of bonds investment allocation and portfolio management, provided a certain reference and experience.