The Effect Of Merchandise Trade And Exchange Rate On China Shipbuilding Industry’s Economic Growth

China is one of the three World shipbuilding centers. The China shipbuilding industry’s economic growth is not only the important content in China’s manufacturing modernization, but also of vital significance to the development of comprehensive national power for its great engine to the upstream and downstream industry. In recent years, China has achieved rapid development on shipbuilding deliveries, shipbuilding orderbook, houlding orders as well as boat products trade. However the shipbuilding economy is also faced with constraints including new international shipbuilding standards, and International transportation demand weakness caused by subprime mortgage crisis in 2007; A force to push the transformation and upgrading of shipbuilding economy is urgently needed. Shipbuilding industry is also a kind of industry whose products with high building and operating cost and long financial period, for this reason it has to take great exchange rate risk and default risk. Under this background and confronted with realistic request of the transformation and upgrading, analyzing the effect of merchandise trad and exchange rate on the shipbuilding industry’s economic growth thus to seek new power to support for the shipbuilding economy is a natural progress that accords with the theoretical logic and objective fact of ec0 nomic growth.This thesis, based on deep study in the objective reality and relevant researches of current situation of merchandise trade, history of exchange rate arrangement in China and status quo of China shipbuilding industry, systematically reviews and absorbs the theory about trade development and economic growth, precisely defines related concepts, then reveals the realization mechanisms through which merchandise trade and exchange rate influences the shipbuilding industry’s economic growth; On that basis, the thesis establishes a VAR model and empirically analyzes the effect of merchandise trade and exchange rate on the shipbuilding industry’s economic growth with time series data from 1996-2013 of 32 season in mainland China. Finally, the policy suggestions are proposed based on analyzing the results of the study.All the results of this paper are the follows: Firstly, the theory of trade development and economic growth can be applied to explain the effect of trade development on the shipbuilding industry’s economic growth. The appreciation of the real effective exchange Rate of Renminbi will reduce profit margins in theory.Secondly, the China shipbuilding industry’s economic growth has significant inertia characteristics.Thirdly, world merchandise trade, Chinese foreign trade and Chinese domestic trade have different effect on China shipbuilding industry’s economic growth.Finally, the appreciation of the real effective exchange Rate of Renminbi does help to increase shipbuilding deliveries but not to shipbuilding orderbook, and finally increase houlding orders.