| Although the GDP of Zhejiang province ranks the fourth in our country, it only provides 8.5% energy self-sufficiency rate. The rapid development of economy brings people a high standard of living, but also brings serious problems of environment pollution. Energy shortage has restricted the speed of our economic development. Finding new energy and renewable energy is the most important way to solve the coordinated development between economy and environment. Zhejiang province has abundant wind energy resources, but the actual utilization rate is low. The lack of funds and advanced wind power technology, and the lack of support and guidance from government lead to the slow development of wind power projects in Zhejiang province.Clean development mechanism(CDM) provides new opportunities for development of wind power project in Zhejiang Province, which can improve utilization rate of wind power through adopting the foreign funds and the advanced environmental technology. This paper applies ARMA time series model to forecast the future energy needs of Zhejiang Province, proving the feasibility and necessity of implementation of wind power CDM projects. The benefits are always accompanied with the risks. Developing CDM projects in Zhejiang province can help ease the problem of energy shortage, however many factors like long period, complex operation and the defects of mechanism, give rise to the potential risks. This paper applies Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process(FAHP) to identify and analysis the risks of every stage in implementation of CDM projects, and adopt reasonable risk avoiding strategies through the results. In order to promote the development of wind power CDM project in Zhejiang Province, we should actively construct the CDM market platform, train specialists and talents, encourage the development of consultation mechanism, increase policy support, and strive to avoid all kinds of risks. |
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