County-level Cultivated Land Resource Security Early Warning Research

It is well known that the cultivated land is a non-renewable and important natural resource. However,the safety of the cultivated land resources has been threatened in recent years,with the reasons including the increasing speed of industrialization and urbanization,the large expansion of population size,the dramatic changes in land type as well as the strength and depth of its use. Xinjiang Economic Symposium has proposed a new direction for the development of Aksu. It addresses the need to protect the cultivated land resource in Aksu in order to gain healthy and sustainable economic development of the city. As a result,it is both necessary and feasible to carry out this research,which provides a security warning system for the cultivated land resource in Aksu.Based on a large number of literatures about the cultivated land resource security early warning system and the understanding of the cultivated land resource security early warning theory,this paper mainly focus on building Aksu’s cultivated land resource security early warning index system on four aspects,including the quantity security,the quality security,he ecological security,and the social and economic security of the cultivated land resources. By taking Aksu as an example,this research analyzes the changes in the characteristic as well as the trend of cultivated land in Aksu from 2004 to 2013,and foretastes the degree of cultivated land resource security in Aksu from 2014 to 2018 using the gray system GM(1,1) model,time series prediction model,BP artificial neural network technology. Furthermore,this research also puts forward several effective measures to ensure the healthy development of the cultivated land resources in Aksu.The results show that: in Aksu,the cultivated land resource security alert degree is moderate from 2014 to 2016 while it is mild from 2017 to 2018. However,the cultivated land resource security comprehensive value is likely to turn into a moderate degree during the period of 2017 to 2018,if we pay little attention to it. Because of therapid development of our society and economy,the contradiction between human and land is becoming increasingly severe. The cultivated land resources quantity security presents a declining trend and cultivated land quality security presents a rising trend from 2014 to 2018,but compared to 2013,it reduced from 2014 to 2016. As agricultural pollution increasing,the environment capacity of regional cultivated land resources tends to be weakened,and cultivated land resource ecological safe degree shows a decline and volatile trend. The cultivated land resources social economy degree shows a continuous slowly increasing trend from 2014 to 2018. Based on the above analysis,this paper puts forward the corresponding measures to deal with the changes in the cultivated land resource security,and intends to achieve the purpose of protecting the cultivated land.