Cities Of Hunan Province Econometric Evaluation Based On The Panel Data

Since the mid- 1990- s, when the time and space characteristics study of the regional economic growth increasingly deepening of regional economic analysis of the relevant local administrative unit more and more. Based on time-series data of 14 cities in hunan province states panel data econometric evaluation, its core including the panel data of sigma convergence analysis, panel data unit root test and cointegration test of panel data of three parts.For convergence analysis of panel data, carries on the descriptive statistical analysis of the regional economic development of hunan first, focus on using variance decomposition method of empirical economic development in regional economy of hunan province sigma convergence, divergence and club convergence problem. From the per capita GDP, per capita disposable income index can’t empirical plays a significant role in hunan province in the economic belt "club convergence" phenomenon, from the urbanization rate indicators are confirmed "club convergence" phenomenon. Reflect the economic index of hunan province in recent years than in the six provinces in central and national has many disadvantages, and in 2003-2013, in the cities of hunan province, the economic evaluation, embarks from the per capita GDP and per capita disposable income index is a state of imbalance of group development, starting from the rate of urbanization is a state of balance of group development.For panel data unit root test, in this paper, two aspects of the empirical test method, on the one hand is the same root LLC, Hadri inspection, on the one hand is the IPS, Fisher- ADF test of different root. Finally to four kinds of unit root test empirical convergence due to the influence factors of economic development in hunan province varies, per capita GDP panel data without absolute convergence phenomenon on the whole, the per capita disposable income and urbanization rate of panel data to have absolute convergence phenomenon as a whole. Reflected in the 2003-2013, with 14 samples for whole cities of hunan province economy, starting from the per capita GDP is a kind of divergent, very significant difference between cities, starting from the rate of per capita disposable income and urbanization is a kind of convergence, and is not a significant difference between the cities.For panel cointegration test, this article use three kinds of inspection, Kao(1999), Pedroni(1999), and Johansen(1995) test. After taking logarithm of real GDP per capita panel and after taking logarithm of real per capita disposable income panel for the three methods are in accordance with the empirical analysis, get the whole whole not cointegration between the two variables panel, a single cointegration conclusion. Reflected in the 2003-2013, on the whole cities in hunan province and the growth of per capita GDP and per capita disposable income growth without long-term co-integration relationship, in addition to the individual cities alone there is a cointegration relationship.At the end of the article made a summary for the measurement of the cities in hunan province economic evaluation, and points out the shortage of this paper panel data model to evaluate and to be desired, advised hunan economic development to job in "three quantity so is" the main line, in order to ensure the rapid growth of per capita GDP, urbanization, increasing the income of residents, the need to accelerate the pace of a well-off society in an all-round way, take the initiative to participate in the national strategy of "area", fully integrated into the "Yangtze river economic belt".