The Research On Price Discovery Function Of China’s Fule Futures Market

As an important strategic material,oil is directly related to economic development and national security.In recent years,with the rapid development of oil financialization,the oil price fluctuations has closely linked with the economic risks,oil futures market position has become increasly important. The rapid development economy of our country makes the oil consumption and demand huge,for domestic production enterprises,oil price fluctuations will cause the enterprise production and business operation risk,and evade the risk of rising costs.From the national perspective,our country in a very small proportion in the international oil pricing power,oil price fluctuation was not only caused the domestic economic development not smooth,it will also threaten national oil security.Shanghai Futures Exchange has created fuel oil futures contracts at 2004 for ten years,the role of promoting the economic development has become increasingly apparent,as a result,many scholars begin to pay close attention to China’s fuel oil futures prices influence in the market,this article is on the basis of existing theory to study of fuel oil futures market in China.First of all,this paper from the background of oil price and the oil futures market makes theoretical analysis of the price discovery function of futures market.Secondly,introduce the futures market price discovery function and the famous oil market at home and abroad.Thirdly,through collecting crude oil and fule oil data which from January 2009 to December 2014,this paper using the empirical analysis to test price discovery function,the tested results shouws that:The price change trend between Shanghai fuel oil futures market and Huangpu fuel oil spot market have relatively high convergence,but the convergence below the WTI futures price and spot price;The function of price discovery of Shanghai fuel oil futures has achieved a measure of success,but adjustment process under certain constraints;Though the domestic futures market has play important function of price discovery,but the influence of the international market is still take the main position.Finally,about how to improve the price discovery function of the oil futures market,it take advices as follows:Establish and improve the oil futures market;Develop our own oil pricing system.In this paper,the creative achievements mainly embodied in the following three aspects : On the research of starting point,this article from the perspective of the international financial and economic market and take the oil futures market as part of it,the benefits of this research is not only to study the depth of futures market price discovery,it will also be able to study the price discovery function role in different markets.At the selection of research variables,this paper adopted the new way of the weighted average of variables data,to make variable data more meaningful.In addition,this article followed the current world economic development situation,especially the oil price change,from the aspects of the empirical and theoretical,to explain the change of the current oil price.