Analysis Of Influencing Factors Of Expected Return On Collective Money Trust Product

With the continuous improvement of laws and regulations of the trust industry, along with the vigorous development of China’s financial sector, the trust industry went out of disorderly developments since2001. Especially after the year2007when the "two new regulations" of trust industry were promulgated, the size of trust funds increased very fast, reaching14times the2007’s scale until the end of2014. Behind the trust industry blowout development, it is its expected rate of return that up to8%or even more than that, which is much higher than that of national debt, funds and financial products. However, the period of China’s trust industry development is not really long, so the study of literature is not much, especially quantitative research literature. This article start from this point, focusing on the development process of the trust industry after2007, and theoretical and empirical analysis about influencing factors of expected return of collective money trust product.In this paper, we first sort previous research literature, summarize results of previous studies, and summarize previous research methods about influencing factors of expected return of collective money trust product. Then there is analysis on the earnings of a collective money trust products, reflecting that the trust product yields vary under different types of features. Then we summarize the product development process of trust, including six rectify of the trust industry, and a detailed analysis of the development trend of trust products after2007, revealing that flourishing of trust industry has an inseparable relationship with the macroeconomic environment, legal environment and industry factors, which foreshadowers later analysis.After that we come to the analysis of the theory about influencing factors of expected return of collective money trust product, which contains the macro environment factors, industry factors and the trust’s feature factors. In this part, we raise interest rates, nominal money supply, CPI index, trust product size, duration, CSI300Index and real estate investment in new fixed assets as influencing factors, which have relationship with expected return of collective money trust product. Also, in different investment areas of trust products, real estate, financial and infrastructure industries’products have the significantly different expected return of trust among other trust products.In order to verify the correctness of theoretical analysis, it is selected that a data set of trust products issued from2006to2014used to do empirical analysis, which contains descriptive statistics, correlation analysis and multiple regression analysis. This part researches on the impact of these explanatory variables upon the expected return of collective money trust products, which verifies the theoretical analysis before.Finally, there is the part of conclusion, summarizing this paper, and make recommendations.16Figures,7Tables,36references.