Analysis Of The Influence Factors On Futures Price Of Soybean

After more than ten years of development, there is a series of breakthrough in China’s futures market. Market standardization degree and the inner running mechanism are rising, the market function also gradually play an important role, and they promote the steady development of Chinese economy. Agricultural products futures as the one of the futures market, not only has the general merchandise property, at the same time also has its own special properties. The futures market plays a very important role in the world markets of agricultural products for production, circulation and consumption. Soybean as the first listed varieties in China’s agricultural product futures market, has a pivotal role for soybean meal and soybean oil futures market, therefore, research and analysis the influence factors of soybean futures prices is important.This paper on the qualitative analysis the influencing factors of soybean futures prices, starting from the fundamentals of a comprehensive analysis of various influence factors of soybean futures prices of positive or negative impact. Specific analysis how the various influence factors of soybean futures prices, and separately to each influence factors are analyzed and the research. Summary it is concluded that the four major factors influencing the soybean futures prices:the macro factor, supply and demand factor, market factor and other factors. Then subdivided from the four aspects are discussed a number of specific factors. By analyzing the general situation of soybean market both China and other countries can be found that soybean imbalance between supply and demand more serious in our country, which depends on foreign soybean (such as U.S. soybeans, Brazilian soybeans, Argentina soybean) highly.For comprehensive scientific evaluation of the influence factors of soybean futures prices in China, this article is based on data from2000to2014, using SPSS principal component analysis the19factors, in order to extract the main factors affecting the soybean futures prices, excluding irrelevant factors, and analyzed the influence of the main influence factors of soybean futures prices, correlation coefficients between the two. Concluded that the soybean futures price influential factors are respectively price indices of means of agricultural production, USDCNY exchange rate, international crude oil prices, China’s soybean consumption, crushing amount, imports, China’s soybean production cost. The dollar index, the USDCNY exchange rate, RMB deposit rates, China’s soybean production and soybean harvest area had a negative correlation on soybean futures price, other variables were positively correlated. Using the principal component analysis (pea) to extract the four factors to soybean futures price regression, can be obtained the regression equation. The equation for soybean futures prices has important value to predict the soybean future price.