The Research On The Investment Risk Assessment And The Real Option Application Of The Mobile Payment Project

The development of mobile Internet and communication technology has brought great changes to our lives, the intelligent mobile terminal wireless connectivity of mobile devices and the Internet, enable people to quickly access to information, communication and communication anytime and anywhere., along with the coming of the era of4g mobile communication and Internet become the most dynamic and creative industry, the Internet, communication network, terminal equipment through IT technology together, produce the new business model of the mobile Internet, mobile commerce, and this kind of business model and the urgent need to payment method based on mobile terminals, mobile payment was born. However, due to the current technology and industry regulatory issues, mobile payment is facing many uncertainty factors interference. We need to clear in the mobile payment project investment risk recognition and evaluation, mobile payment belong to the long cycle, capital intensive and high risk project, the project value mainly lies in the uncertainty of the future, the risk is the energy value of appreciation. The traditional mobile payment project value only on its earnings forecast, the limitations of this prediction affected its dynamic value. And real options is of different nature to mobile payment project, uncertainty and its solution for the influence of the investment decision-making to provide a new perspective.In this paper deeply discusses the qualitative assessment of mobile payment project risk, analyses the influence of uncertainty factors, discussed the definition of real options in the system, types, implementing conditions and effects, based on mobile payment project investment analysis of the factors affecting the real option value of the variable parameters for processing, build model suited to the characteristics of the mobile payment project options. Particular way is, combining analytic hierarchy process and comprehensive design method, including mobile payment project risk assessment and control of these two aspects, build the index system of mobile payment investment project risk management. Mobile payment main risk recognition, risk of qualitative analysis, can be more comprehensive control and management of mobile payment project. Finally, combining the method of real option theory with practical for mobile payment to a third party platform specific projects, mobile payment project (a company) based on option pricing theory and the montecarlo simulation analysis of volatility, determine the value of the mobile payment project.