Research On The Impact Of Three Types Of Crash On Tourism Market Volatility

In2014, Chinese total tourism revenue topped3trillion Yuan which was accounting for5.2%of GDP, becoming an important part of Chinese economy. In recent years, tourism revenue growth rate has kept twice the growth rate of GDP growth rate and remained at around15%, accounts for an increasing proportion of the national economy. Therefore, effective assessment of the impact of tourism for the crash, timely adjustment travel agencies, airline configuration, hotel and catering industry resources, has a very important practical significance.Econometric analysis model was used in this article, and empirical analysis was constructed on the air crash on the Chinese tourism market, practical solution was proposed on analysis of the influence degree, the dynamic impact effect and dynamic impact processes of air crash on the Chinese tourism market.First of all, the author studies the impact of crashes on the tourism marketing by the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The author chose a profound disaster in loss of Malaysia Airlines flight. The author studied the impact of the scale and impact degree of loss of Malaysia Airlines flight on Chinese tourism market. The author do trace prediction to population travel to Southeast Asia via ARIMA model, analyze the impact size and degree of loss of Malaysia Airlines flight on Chinese tourism market return.Secondly, according to the features of crashes’ impact, the air crashes can be divided into three types:terraced air crashes, pulse air crashes and incremental air crashes. Using dummy variables to depict the various types of crashes, ARIMA-GARCH transfer function model was established to research the influence of the three types of disaster events on tourism market volatility. The data shows that:The impact duration of incremental crashes on the tourism market was longer than that of terraced and pulse air crashes. This verifies that the impact of loss of Malaysia Airlines flight on the tourism market lasts longer, which caused the continuous fluctuation in the tourism market. Finally, in accordance with the feature of three different types of crashes’ influence, realistic solution is put forward. Mainly including:technical strategy and Non-technical strategy of tourism markets dealing with air crashes.