Study On International Transmission And Impact Of Financial Systemic Risk

In recent years, along with the accelerating process of global financialliberalization, countries increasingly close economic and financial, this problem ofresearch literature about financial crisis more and more. In2008the US subprimemortgage crisis triggered by the global financial crisis, triggered a new round offinancial crisis to ponder, this paragraph of time also emerged a large number ofresearch results. The results of this study involves the field is very broad, to increasethe financial crisis of the research to the financial systemic risk degree of the level,through the empirical model combining theory with practice, comprehensive in-depthstudy of financial systemic risk quantitative identification, risk transfer and regulatoryprotection and so on. This not only improves the academic understanding of financialsystemic risk, also provides the relevant policy recommendations for the government.This paper summarizes the research results, summarizes the financial systemicrisk quantitative identification of the various methods, combing the various ways ofrisk transfer, and the characteristics of the transfer. On this basis, this paper selectedthe banking sector, the stock market, bond market and the foreign exchange market ofthe five variables: TED spread, bonds, stock market volatility, the yield of stockmarket and the foreign exchange market volatility, was synthesized in this paper, thefinancial systemic risk measure index, financial pressure index (FSI).In terms offinancial systemic risk transfer, this paper draws on Zhang Yanqun (2012), themethod of using the global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model to analyze the risktransfer between countries in the world, finally through the impulse response functionanalysis demand shock, the United States financial pressure shock, Chinese demand shock, China’s financial impact on the rest of the country’s economic impact extentand duration.Accordingly, in this paper, the following conclusions: first, the rise of financialsystemic risk to cause a decline in its actual output, and passed on spillover effect toother countries, resulting in a decline in other national output. Second, the financialsystemic risk transfer has regional characteristics. Third, the impact of financialsystemic risk shock in the developed countries, shorter than output to reduce theimpact of time delay, great influence. Fourth, financial systemic risk is more easilytransmitted from developed countries to developing countries. Fifth, financialsystemic risk transfer has the pro-cyclical.Based on the conclusion, finally, the paper puts forward several policySuggestions: first, must satisfy the Basel bank capital Ⅲ.Second, use the tools such asprovision for control rod lever effect of financial institutions. Third, to strengthen theregulation of the shadow banking and financial innovation.